Weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly declined while Q2 GDP was revised upwards to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is weighing further rate cuts amid mixed signals on employment and inflation, with debates ongoing about the pace of future easing. Stock markets reacted negatively to the data, and investors are now focusing on upcoming inflation reports.
Recent data shows an increase in US jobless claims and continuing claims, indicating some labor market softness, while PMI data suggests economic expansion, and housing sales have slightly rebounded, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed.
The number of Americans applying for jobless claims decreased slightly, indicating a strong labor market despite high interest rates. The four-week moving average of claims increased slightly, and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits rose. The Federal Reserve has been raising rates to control inflation, but the economy and labor market continue to show resilience. Employers posted more job openings in September, and private employers added 150,000 jobs in October, suggesting ongoing hiring and a sturdy economy.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits decreased by 9,000 to 228,000 for the week ending July 15, indicating a strong labor market despite higher interest rates. The four-week moving average of claims fell by 9,250 to 237,500. The unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.6%, and the U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign. While there have been high-profile layoffs in the tech sector, overall job growth has been strong, with employers adding jobs at a rapid pace.
The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time held steady at a 20-month high last week, while the ranks of all those continuing to receive benefits beyond the first week fell. This may be an early indication of a softening labor market in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive credit tightening. The US current account deficit widened modestly in the first three months of 2023, snapping three quarters of narrowing, according to the Commerce Department.
The Japanese Yen rallied after strong Japanese GDP figures and a miss on US initial jobless claims data placed the dollar on the backfoot. A strong growth report may push the Bank of Japan to make policy changes sooner than expected. The USD/JPY daily chart shows a short-term rising wedge chart pattern centered around the 140.00 psychological level. A confirmed break below wedge support could open up the 138.45 zone. The week ahead is likely to remain relatively quiet as markets anticipate next week’s US CPI and FOMC announcement which is sure to stir up some volatility.