The article examines historical data on large tariff increases, particularly around 2025, showing that such shocks historically raised unemployment and lowered inflation, possibly due to increased uncertainty, and discusses implications for current monetary policy decisions.
A new comprehensive dataset of U.S. commercial banks' call reports from 1959 to 2025 has been released, offering standardized, detailed balance sheet and income statement data for research and analysis of the banking sector's historical performance and trends.
A Dallas Fed paper suggests that the effectiveness of the federal funds rate in transmitting monetary policy has waned, and proposes shifting the Fed's target to the tri-party general collateral rate (TGCR), which better reflects real-world short-term borrowing costs and remains more effective as a policy tool.
Wharton’s Itay Goldstein discusses the potential for an AI bubble, the mechanics of market speculation, and the risks associated with the current AI boom, raising concerns about what might happen if the bubble bursts.
Economists warn that while Americans desire lower prices for essentials like groceries, housing, and energy, falling prices could have negative effects on the economy, suggesting that lower prices are not always beneficial.
The Winner's Curse occurs when the winners of auctions or bidding wars tend to overpay and end up paying more than the item's worth, a phenomenon observed across various markets and domains. Richard Thaler, a pioneer in behavioral economics, highlights how irrational bidding behavior leads to this curse and offers advice to avoid it, emphasizing cautious bidding especially in competitive environments with many bidders.
Branko Milanovic discusses the decline of neoliberal globalization, the rise of China, the emergence of a new global elite, and the shift towards national market liberalism, highlighting the increased inequality, geopolitical tensions, and societal discontent that may lead to further instability, all within a framework of long-term observable trends and critical analysis of capitalism's moral shortcomings.
The article discusses the concept of bubbles, particularly in the context of the AI industry, highlighting how bubbles, despite their risks, can drive significant technological and infrastructural progress by enabling large-scale investments and innovation, as seen in past revolutions like the internet and industrialization. It emphasizes that current AI investments, especially in power and chip manufacturing, could lead to long-term benefits, even if the bubble eventually pops, and advocates for viewing bubbles as catalysts for societal advancement rather than solely as financial risks.
A new poll indicates that economists are increasingly uncertain about the future direction of U.S. interest rates, reflecting shifting economic outlooks and potential changes in monetary policy.
Originally Published 2 months ago — by Hacker News
The faster depreciation of EVs compared to gas cars is largely due to rapid technological advancements making older models less desirable, coupled with market factors like subsidies and high initial prices. While EVs lose value quickly, this trend may reflect ongoing innovation rather than lack of demand, and improvements in battery technology and new models suggest the depreciation rate could stabilize over time.
The article discusses insights from Nobel economics laureates on the factors influencing economic growth, emphasizing the importance of innovation, institutions, and policies in fostering sustainable development.
Joel Mokyr was awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics for his research on how science, technology, and the willingness of society to adopt and implement innovations—especially in Britain—sparked the Industrial Revolution and sustained economic growth through creative destruction, emphasizing the importance of technological progress and adaptable institutions for future growth.
The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their work on how innovation and 'creative destruction' drive economic growth, emphasizing the importance of technological progress and the need for policies that support sustained growth, with Aghion urging Europe to learn from the U.S. and China.
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for their work explaining how innovation drives economic growth through mechanisms like creative destruction, emphasizing the importance of understanding and maintaining these processes to prevent stagnation.