Banks and traders are racing to capitalize on the historic surge in gold prices, highlighting a significant shift in investment strategies amid volatile financial markets.
JPMorgan traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates and expect the market to react accordingly, though specific outcomes remain uncertain.
Traders are now pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate in December, following an October PCE inflation reading that met expectations. This marks an increase from a 59.4% probability earlier in the week, indicating a shift away from the idea of a pause by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool reflects this sentiment, despite a previous error in reporting a potential rate hike.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported a 28% increase in net income in the first quarter, surpassing expectations and outperforming its chief rival JPMorgan Chase & Co. The surprise surge was driven by successful traders and bankers capitalizing on a resurgence in dealmaking activity, showcasing the benefits of the company's back-to-basics approach.
Traders are now leaning towards two quarter-point interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024, with the likelihood of three cuts diminishing. Market expectations suggest around 60 basis points of US monetary easing this year, indicating that two cuts are the most probable outcome, with the first expected by September.
Traders are closely monitoring China's daily yuan reference rate on Monday after the currency approached a critical level last week, with the fixing expected to indicate whether Beijing will intervene to support the yuan or allow a modest depreciation. The yuan's stability is crucial as it can impact other markets as a regional currency anchor.
Traders, previously complacent, are now seeking hedges for the S&P 500 as the demand for market insurance increases following a bumpy week, signaling a shift from the long-standing bullish sentiment amidst stalling Fed policy.
Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve won't start cutting interest rates until May, as stronger-than-expected economic data and comments from central bankers have reduced market confidence in the possibility of earlier rate cuts. Futures contracts now indicate a 47% chance of a rate cut by March, down from 55% earlier in the day, reflecting a shift in expectations. Despite signals from Fed policymakers that their rate-hike campaign was likely at an end, signs of continued consumer strength and ongoing inflation challenges have led to uncertainty about the timing of any rate cuts.
Deutsche Bank's CFO hinted that bonuses for 2023 might not be strong due to a difficult year and poor performance in areas such as M&A and fixed income trading. The bank's fourth quarter results are not due until February 1st, but it has already seen departures of rates traders, potentially impacting revenues. With inflation traders in high demand, Deutsche Bank may face challenges in retaining talent and maintaining its bonus pool, especially after previous cuts and heavy spending on hiring senior investment bankers.
Traders are speculating on oil prices reaching $110 per barrel as tensions escalate in the Middle East, with bets equivalent to around 30 million barrels placed on Brent Crude hitting this mark by spring. The conflict in the region, particularly in the Red Sea, has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. However, analysts believe that a major escalation is unlikely, citing factors such as rising American oil production and subdued global economic growth. Despite the speculation, the consensus forecast for 2024 suggests that oil prices are unlikely to exceed $80 per barrel on average.
Traders betting against higher bitcoin prices lost over $100 million as expectations of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S. neared the finish line, causing BTC to surge as high as 9% before giving back some gains. Thirteen proposed ETFs are awaiting SEC approval, with a final decision expected on Wednesday, and potential issuers are already filing offering fees, signaling the potential for the first-ever bitcoin ETF in the U.S.
Traders are preparing for the final Federal Reserve meeting of 2023, hoping to gain insights into potential rate cuts. The meeting will be closely watched for any indications of the central bank's stance on interest rates, which could have a significant impact on the market.
Traders are increasing their bets on a US interest rate cut despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's pushback against such expectations. Market participants are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut in July, as concerns over global growth and trade tensions persist. Powell, however, emphasized the Fed's independence and stated that the central bank would act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion, but did not explicitly signal an imminent rate cut.