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Trump’s ‘greatest economy’ claim meets the data
economy1 day ago

Trump’s ‘greatest economy’ claim meets the data

BEA data show 2025 real GDP rose 2.2% (Q4 at 1.4% annualized), a slowdown from 2024, with the Oct–Nov 2025 shutdown subtracting about 1 percentage point from Q4 growth. Job growth was weak in 2025 (~15,000 payrolls per month), though January 2026 added 130,000, and unemployment stood at 4.3%; federal employment fell 327,000 since Oct 2024. A Supreme Court ruling curtailed Trump’s tariffs, which now face exemptions and hinge on a new 10–15% rate; the average tariff is about 9.1%. Public opinion remains skeptical (about 39% approve the economy vs 59% disapprove), suggesting the data undercut the president’s boast about the economy.

via Euronews.com|
#bea#economy#gdp
Q4 GDP Slows as Federal Spending Drops and AI Investment Reshapes the Picture
economy1 day ago

Q4 GDP Slows as Federal Spending Drops and AI Investment Reshapes the Picture

Fourth-quarter GDP grew slower than expected as a 16.6% drop in federal spending—part of it tied to a government shutdown and allegedly caused by Elon Musk’s DOGE-related cuts—dragged overall growth, while consumption was led by healthcare spending; housing and durable goods weakened, and non-residential investment was mixed with AI-related equipment up but other areas soft. Inflation remained stubborn at about 2.9% PCE, complicating Fed policy, and uncertainty remains over tariff policy after a court ruling and the future of the AI-driven investment boom.

via Counterpunch|
#ai-boom#economy#elon-musk
US GDP slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 as shutdown drags growth
business5 days ago

US GDP slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 as shutdown drags growth

US GDP rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4 2025, undershooting economists’ expectations of about 3%, as disruptions from the government shutdown and softer consumer spending weighed on growth. The CBO estimated the shutdown shaved roughly 1.5 percentage points from Q4 GDP, with most lost output expected to be recovered. AI-related investment and tax cuts are seen as supports for activity later in the year, even as the economy remains uneven and inflation pressures persist.

via The Guardian|
#ai-investment#business#consumer-spending
Markets hold near flat as GDP, PCE data and tariff ruling loom
business5 days ago

Markets hold near flat as GDP, PCE data and tariff ruling loom

U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday ahead of Q4 GDP data and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE), plus a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs; Dow futures fell about 30 points, S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose ~0.1%. Economists expect Q4 real GDP growth around 2.5% and the PCE price index about 2.8% year over year (core ~3%). Fed minutes show officials split on rate cuts, signaling more evidence inflation must cool. A ruling against tariffs could lift markets, though the White House may reimpose duties later. In recent sessions, the Dow and Nasdaq slipped while oil rose amid U.S.–Iran tensions; Nvidia earnings are due next week.

via CNBC|
#business#fed-policy#gdp
Japan posts 0.1% Q4 growth, narrowly dodges recession but misses forecasts
economy10 days ago

Japan posts 0.1% Q4 growth, narrowly dodges recession but misses forecasts

Japan's economy grew 0.1% in Q4 2025, narrowly avoiding a technical recession (annualized +0.2%) but missing economists' 0.4% forecast; private consumption led the gain while exports and public spending lagged, and the BOJ lifted its 2026 growth outlook. The release comes as Tokyo and Washington push a $550 billion investment pledge under their trade deal, with currency moves and domestic politics shaping sentiment.

via CNBC|
#boj#economy#gdp
Post-growth economics rise as climate limits loom
environment16 days ago

Post-growth economics rise as climate limits loom

The piece explores whether economic growth can be decoupled from carbon emissions, highlighting the growing influence of post-growth ideas (such as doughnut economics and wellbeing budgets) in response to slipping climate targets and calls from leaders like the UN chief to move beyond GDP as a progress measure, while debating how far de-growth should go to keep the planet within safe limits.

via The Guardian|
#decoupling#doughnut-economics#emissions
California’s booming GDP contrasts with a weak job market
economy17 days ago

California’s booming GDP contrasts with a weak job market

Despite a $4.22 trillion economy, California’s job market weakened in 2025, ranking 37th for job growth after a 0.1% decline (about 11,200 jobs lost). The Bay Area dragged overall growth, with private-sector cuts outpacing government hires, and December 2025 unemployment at 5.5%, the worst in the nation. Nationally, jobs grew 0.4%. Experts cite high hiring costs and regulatory barriers, urging reforms to restore hiring competitiveness.

via The Mercury News|
#bay-area#california#economy
Tariffs Fall Short: U.S. Trade Deficit Stays Near Record High
economy-and-politics26 days ago

Tariffs Fall Short: U.S. Trade Deficit Stays Near Record High

The U.S. trade deficit remains near record highs despite tariffs, after a brief dip earlier in 2025; November alone showed a jump to $56.8 billion as imports rose and exports fell. Even when removing tariff effects and gold flows, deficits stay large, with 2025 tracking to one of the year’s largest gaps. Economists say tariffs and a cheaper dollar help, but persistent import demand (notably from Mexico and Vietnam) and AI-related equipment needs keep the deficit elevated, even as Q4 looks to be the year’s smallest deficit and could modestly boost GDP.

via MarketWatch|
#economy-and-politics#exports#gdp
BoC Holds 2.25% Rate Amid Muted Growth Outlook
economy28 days ago

BoC Holds 2.25% Rate Amid Muted Growth Outlook

The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate at 2.25% in January 2026, saying the global and Canadian outlook is little changed since October. Inflation remains near the 2% target, growth is expected to be modest due to slower population growth and US protectionism, and GDP projections for 2026–27 were trimmed modestly. The statement reaffirmed that the current policy rate remains appropriate, with a readiness to respond if conditions shift.

via investingLive|
#bank-of-canada#economy#gdp