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All articles tagged with #economy and politics

January data could redraw the Fed's roadmap on rates as inflation lingers
economy-and-politics16 days ago

January data could redraw the Fed's roadmap on rates as inflation lingers

Investors await January's jobs report and CPI to gauge whether inflation continues to cool while the labor market stays resilient. Economists anticipate about 55,000 new jobs with unemployment near 4.4%, a 0.3% rise in CPI (core also ~0.3%), and a 2.5% year-over-year inflation rate, possible signs the Fed could begin easing later in 2026. The Fed just left rates unchanged amid inflation concerns, but officials warn the path is uncertain, making the January data crucial for policy and markets.

via MarketWatch|
#economy#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve
Wholesale inflation sticks around as Warsh emerges as Fed chair prospect
economy-and-politics27 days ago

Wholesale inflation sticks around as Warsh emerges as Fed chair prospect

Wholesale prices jumped 0.5% in December, keeping the year-over-year wholesale inflation at 3% and signaling inflation will likely stay above the Fed’s 2% target into early 2026; core prices rose 0.4% for the month, leaving the 12-month core at 3.5%. With President Trump naming Kevin Warsh as his Fed chair pick, the central bank faces the challenge of cooling inflation while keeping policy rates steady.

via MarketWatch|
#donald-trump#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve
Tariffs Fall Short: U.S. Trade Deficit Stays Near Record High
economy-and-politics27 days ago

Tariffs Fall Short: U.S. Trade Deficit Stays Near Record High

The U.S. trade deficit remains near record highs despite tariffs, after a brief dip earlier in 2025; November alone showed a jump to $56.8 billion as imports rose and exports fell. Even when removing tariff effects and gold flows, deficits stay large, with 2025 tracking to one of the year’s largest gaps. Economists say tariffs and a cheaper dollar help, but persistent import demand (notably from Mexico and Vietnam) and AI-related equipment needs keep the deficit elevated, even as Q4 looks to be the year’s smallest deficit and could modestly boost GDP.

via MarketWatch|
#economy-and-politics#exports#gdp
Fed pause endures, but the big question is how long it lasts
economy-and-politics1 month ago

Fed pause endures, but the big question is how long it lasts

Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold rates this week, while markets price in the first potential cut around July and economists remain divided on whether there will be any cuts this year, with some predicting a June move and others forecasting none, all amid inflation stuck above target and a still-important role for the labor market in the trajectory.

via MarketWatch|
#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve#inflation
Trump hints Hassett stay, boosting Warsh's odds to chair the Fed
economy-and-politics1 month ago

Trump hints Hassett stay, boosting Warsh's odds to chair the Fed

President Trump signaled he may keep Kevin Hassett in his current White House role, sending the Fed chair race into a new phase as Kevin Warsh’s odds jumped. Prediction markets showed Warsh favored (Kalshi around 58%, Hassett about 17%), with Polymarket echoing the tilt, and markets reacting to the Trump remarks amid broader concerns tied to Powell’s situation and Senate confirmation dynamics. Analysts say Warsh would likely be dovish like Hassett but could shift if the economy strengthens, making the outcome contingent on political timing and Senate approvals.

via MarketWatch|
#donald-trump#economy-and-politics#fed-chair
Powell Likely to Stay at the Fed After Trump’s Push
economy-and-politics1 month ago

Powell Likely to Stay at the Fed After Trump’s Push

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May, but he can remain on the Fed board through 2028. Despite Trump’s attempt to push him out, a DOJ probe may actually increase Powell’s motivation to stay, preserving the central bank’s independence. Any replacement would require Senate confirmation, and if a chair isn’t confirmed by Powell’s departure, the Fed board could appoint a temporary chair. The outcome hinges on who Trump would nominate and the Senate’s actions.

via MarketWatch|
#economy-and-politics#fed#independence
Tariffs Push Prices Up Across U.S., Fed Beige Book Finds
economy-and-politics1 month ago

Tariffs Push Prices Up Across U.S., Fed Beige Book Finds

MarketWatch reports the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showing tariff-related cost pressures across the U.S. are pushing prices higher in most districts, with only two of twelve districts posting slight price growth and others contending with rising costs, including healthcare and insurance, signaling ongoing inflationary pressure into 2026.

via MarketWatch|
#cost-pressures#economy-and-politics#fed-beige-book
US Labor Market Faces Stagnation and Uncertainty in 2025-2026
economy-and-politics2 months ago

US Labor Market Faces Stagnation and Uncertainty in 2025-2026

The US labor market in 2025 showed signs of slowdown with subdued job creation and a rising unemployment rate, but no signs of a recession. Job growth is expected to remain modest in 2026, with some analysts predicting a jobless expansion, though others see potential for stabilization or growth due to policy changes and economic measures. Overall, rapid job growth of previous years is unlikely to return soon.

via MarketWatch|
#economic-outlook#economy-and-politics#job-growth-2026
Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts: What They Mean for Your Finances and the Economy
economy-and-politics3 months ago

Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts: What They Mean for Your Finances and the Economy

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is uncertain due to divided opinions among Fed officials and unclear economic data, leading markets to reduce expectations of a cut. The Fed recently cut rates by a quarter point, but future moves depend on upcoming economic data, with some officials advocating for caution amid mixed signals from the economy.

via MarketWatch|
#december#economic-outlook#economy-and-politics
Congress Faces Deadlock as Government Shutdown Extends, Threatening Economic Impact
economy-and-politics4 months ago

Congress Faces Deadlock as Government Shutdown Extends, Threatening Economic Impact

The ongoing government shutdown, potentially the longest in US history, is causing economic concerns, with estimates of a 0.1% to 0.2% weekly impact on GDP and fears of larger damage if mass layoffs occur. The shutdown is driven by a standoff over Obamacare subsidies and could extend into November, with possible triggers for resolution including airport disruptions or military pay issues. Polls show significant public concern about economic effects, but some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about long-term impacts.

via MarketWatch|
#economic-impact#economy-and-politics#federal-government
US Government Shutdown Sparks Market Uncertainty and Rate Cut Speculation
economy-and-politics4 months ago

US Government Shutdown Sparks Market Uncertainty and Rate Cut Speculation

The US government shutdown is complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process on interest rates due to delayed economic data, especially inflation and employment reports, amid a sluggish labor market and high inflation. Despite alternative data sources, the lack of official statistics may lead the Fed to hold rates steady or proceed cautiously in its upcoming meetings, with some experts suggesting the shutdown could increase market volatility.

via MarketWatch|
#economic-data#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve
Market Anticipates Fed Rate Cuts Amid Rising Unemployment and Economic Cooling
economy-and-politics5 months ago

Market Anticipates Fed Rate Cuts Amid Rising Unemployment and Economic Cooling

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points amid concerns over weak job growth and inflation, but this move has sparked debate among economists about its potential impact on inflation and economic stability, with opinions divided on whether the cut is appropriate given current economic conditions.

via MarketWatch|
#economy-and-politics#federal-reserve#inflation