JPMorgan warns that despite strong job growth in May, underlying data indicates a gradual slowdown in the US economy, with signs of weakening labor market conditions and potential discouragement among workers.
Russia's economy is experiencing a slowdown, leading to internal disagreements over economic policy. This deceleration is causing concern among policymakers and highlighting divisions within the government on how to address the economic challenges.
France is tightening its budget as economic growth slows, with the government announcing plans to cut spending and increase taxes in order to meet deficit targets. The move comes as the country's economic growth is expected to fall short of previous forecasts, prompting the government to take action to rein in its budget deficit.
Google has confirmed that the recent YouTube slowdown is not due to its crackdown on ad blockers, but rather stems from the latest updates to AdBlock and AdBlock Plus. Users have reported major lags with ad blockers enabled, and even some YouTube Premium subscribers are affected. Google advises following troubleshooting tips, but it's clear that ad blockers are impacting YouTube performance, particularly with the latest versions of AdBlock and AdBlock Plus.
Global banks are no longer forecasting a U.S. recession for 2024, but companies and investors remain cautious due to tepid consumer demand. While investment bank analysts are optimistic about growth prospects, real money managers trust the more circumspect companies. Major banks predict constrained global growth in 2024 due to elevated interest rates, pricier oil, and a weakened China, but with low odds of a recession. Companies are describing demand as weak, soft, and sluggish, and are cutting inventories accordingly. Walmart and Dollar General have expressed caution about consumer spending, while Procter & Gamble remains optimistic. Fund managers are focused on whether the Federal Reserve can avert a recession while containing inflation. Surveys show that consumer spending has been cooling, and economists' probability of a U.S. recession within a year has decreased. Forecasts for 2024 are more conservative, with even the most bullish predictions expecting single-digit gains for U.S. stocks.
Despite the end of the earnings recession, the economy is showing signs of slowing down, indicating an impending economic recession that cannot be avoided.
Diageo, the multinational alcoholic beverages company, has warned of a potential hit to its profits due to a slowdown in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company cited challenges in key markets such as Brazil and Mexico, where economic and political uncertainties have impacted consumer spending. Diageo's sales in the region have been affected by reduced demand for its products, particularly in the on-trade sector.
Retail sales in September exceeded expectations, with a growth of 0.7% from the previous month, indicating the resilience of the American consumer despite predictions of a slowdown. Sales excluding auto and gas also increased by 0.6%, surpassing estimates. The report reflects strong consumer spending, which has been a key factor in keeping the US economy out of a recession. However, some companies have indicated a potential slowdown in the future, as consumers and businesses are spending down their cash buffers.
Bank of America's credit card data reveals a decrease in consumer spending, with a 0.3% decline in the week ending September 23 compared to the same period last year. The decline has been observed for several weeks, particularly in discretionary categories excluding auto and gas purchases. This data suggests a potential slowdown in consumer spending, contradicting the previously strong consumer narrative. Economists warn of headwinds such as rising gas prices, a potential government shutdown, ongoing strikes, and the resumption of student loan payments that could further impact spending. However, the current strength of the labor market may help mitigate the expected slowdown.
The Eurozone's money supply has contracted for the first time in 13 years as lending activity slows down, raising concerns about the region's economic recovery. The European Central Bank's data showed that the annual growth rate of M3 money supply, which includes cash in circulation, deposits, and other liquid assets, fell to -0.2% in July. This decline suggests that banks are becoming more cautious in extending credit, potentially hindering economic growth in the Eurozone.
China's alarming trade data, showing double-digit drops in exports and imports in July, has unsettled global stock markets and triggered flight-to-quality trades to US government debt and the dollar. The deepening slowdown in China's economy, coupled with troubles in its manufacturing and real estate sectors, has raised concerns about the strength of the global economy. Investors are now worried about a potential slowdown in the US and are reevaluating the prospects of global growth.