Tag

Unemployment

All articles tagged with #unemployment

markets3 hours ago•1 min saved

Yields retreat as traders await fresh inflation data

U.S. Treasuries eased as investors braced for a wholesale inflation read (PPI) while parsing a still-robust labor market: 10-year yields around 4.023%, 30-year about 4.675%, and 2-year near 3.452%. Initial unemployment claims for the week ended Feb. 21 came in at 212,000, below expectations of 215,000, signaling resilience despite a solid January payrolls print. Traders expect Friday’s PPI to rise about 0.3% for both headline and core measures, a cooler report that could boost risk appetite for stocks.

via CNBC|

#inflation #markets #producer-price-index

business1 day ago•1 min saved

AI Disruption Debate Roils Wall Street After Grim Research Note

A Citrini Research note warning that AI could cause mass unemployment and a stock-market plunge sparked a sell-off and debate among investors and policymakers, though many analysts dispute the conclusions and view AI disruption as a risk to monitor rather than an inevitable catastrophe.

via The New York Times|

#ai #business #economy

business2 days ago•7 min saved

AI Doomsday Scenario Spooks Markets

A speculative Substack piece from Citrini Research envisions AI agents triggering a 2027–28 downturn: mass white‑collar unemployment, disruption of software and middlemen businesses, a wave of private‑credit defaults and a mortgage crisis, and a 57% S&P crash accompanied by Occupy Silicon Valley protests. While many analysts chalk it up to sensationalism, the scenario raises questions about how AI could reshape demand, jobs, and policy responses in a real economy.

via The Guardian|

#ai #business #markets

markets3 days ago•29 min saved

AI Bear Case: A Hypothetical Path to a 40% S&P Selloff

MarketWatch summarizes a Citrini Research scenario in which widespread AI adoption disrupts demand and boosts automation, triggering white‑collar job losses and weaker consumer spending. The model envisions a non‑cyclical downturn that could push the S&P 500 down roughly 38–40% from 2026 highs by 2027–28, with ripple effects across bonds, private credit, and housing. The authors stress it’s a scenario‑based exercise, not a forecast.

via MarketWatch|

#artificial-intelligence #economic-impact #markets

economy8 days ago•4 min saved

Fed minutes reveal split on rate path: holding cuts for now, with hikes on the table if inflation persists

Minutes from the January FOMC show a divided committee: most officials favored pausing further rate cuts for now unless inflation clearly slows, while some floated the possibility of hikes if inflation remains above target; the statement was adjusted to reflect a more balanced outlook, and markets price in a potential June cut followed by another move later in the year if disinflation proceeds and labor markets stay resilient.

via CNBC|

#economy #fed #fomc

economy9 days ago•5 min saved

UK unemployment climbs to five-year high as vacancies lag and redundancies rise

Official data show the UK unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in December, the highest since early 2021, with redundancies increasing and the number of unemployed per vacancy at a post-pandemic high. Wage growth remains uneven—faster in the public sector and softer in the private sector—and the ONS cautions about interpreting monthly vacancy data. A CIPD survey links hiring cuts to new workers’ rights and higher employer National Insurance costs, while markets price in potential Bank of England rate cuts later this year.

via Sky News|

#bank-of-england #economy #note-extra-tag-would-exceed-limit

economy11 days ago•6 min saved

US growth outpaces hiring as job market cools

The US economy is expanding at a robust pace while job openings and hiring have fallen to multi-year lows, leaving some workers unemployed or underemployed despite strong growth. Analysts point to factors like AI-driven efficiency, outsourcing, immigration policy, and fiscal uncertainty as possible causes, with experts cautioning the trend could be temporary or longer-lasting.

via BBC|

#artificial-intelligence #economic-growth #economy

economy17 days ago•5 min saved

California’s booming GDP contrasts with a weak job market

Despite a $4.22 trillion economy, California’s job market weakened in 2025, ranking 37th for job growth after a 0.1% decline (about 11,200 jobs lost). The Bay Area dragged overall growth, with private-sector cuts outpacing government hires, and December 2025 unemployment at 5.5%, the worst in the nation. Nationally, jobs grew 0.4%. Experts cite high hiring costs and regulatory barriers, urging reforms to restore hiring competitiveness.

via The Mercury News|

#bay-area #california #economy

economy18 days ago•0 min saved

Softening labor market rises as the economy's top threat

Data piling up point to a weakening labor market as the main risk to the US economy this year, potentially slowing growth and paving the way for further rate cuts, with economists like Mark Zandi saying the jobs market remains fragile and job creation is faltering.

via CNBC|

#economy #fed-policy #interest-rates

politics24 days ago•76 min saved

Trump's December 2025 Economy Watch: Unemployment Edges Down, Data Revisions Stir Debate

BuzzFeed tracks Donald Trump’s December 2025 economy, noting unemployment around 4.4% with sectoral job shifts, while inflation data arrives later and several prior months were revised upward. The piece also cites Trump’s unfounded claim about Democrats manipulating unemployment figures, presenting December as a cautious snapshot of the administration’s economic performance.

via BuzzFeed|

#data-revisions #economy #inflation

economy26 days ago•40 min saved

Claudia Sahm warns: the economy's signals are shifting beyond the usual alarms

Economist Claudia Sahm argues the economy has quietly shifted: hiring remains weak even as unemployment looks tame, immigration and political pressure are reshaping the labor pool, and traditional recession indicators may no longer signal trouble. She urges policymakers to focus on the labor market rather than relying on the Sahm Rule, warning that institutions like the Fed could drift under political pressure. With AI displacement and a leadership change at the Fed adding uncertainty, the usual toolkit for stimulating demand may not fit the current cycle.

via Fortune|

#ai #economy #fed

business28 days ago•3 min saved

Fed holds rates steady on solid-growth signal

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, saying the economy has been expanding at a solid pace and the job market is stabilizing, with no guidance on when a future move might come. The decision follows last year’s rate cuts and occurs amid political/legal scrutiny of Fed leadership. Two policymakers dissented, preferring a rate cut, while Powell emphasized decisions will be data-driven and that policy remains near neutral.

via Axios|

#business #federal-reserve #fomc

economy-and-politics29 days ago•16 min saved

January blues persist as Americans doubt the economy's strength

Americans started 2026 in a foul mood even as the economy shows growth and unemployment remains low, with consumer confidence sinking to a 12-year low (84.5). Persistent inflation around 3% and a softer job market weigh on sentiment, underscoring a disconnect between strong headlines and public mood.

via MarketWatch|

#consumer-confidence #economic-growth #economic-indicators

economy29 days ago•4 min saved

Fed Poised to Hold Rates as Powell Faces Trump Pressure

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged as it weighs a cooling labor market against inflation still above its 2% target, while Powell confronts political pressure from Trump and ongoing questions about the Fed's independence.

via NBC News|

#economy #fed #inflation

economy1 month ago•27 min saved

Trump 2.0: A Mixed Bag of Jobs, Debt, and Border Policy

FactCheck.org’s Trump’s Numbers, Second Term lays out a year of data showing a mixed economic picture: job growth slowed and unemployment edged up, but real wages rose and inflation cooled on CPI while the Fed’s preferred PCE index stayed above target; GDP growth is estimated around 1.7–1.8% for 2025. Immigration policy produced a dramatic drop in border apprehensions and near-cessation of refugee admissions; the stock market reached new highs and energy production rose as imports fell. The federal debt rose about 6.7% in the year, deficits remained large, and SNAP participation declined, with housing, crime, and other metrics continuing to evolve. The article presents the numbers without judging credit or blame.

via FactCheck.org|

#economy #immigration #inflation