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Unemployment

All articles tagged with #unemployment

Obscure Labor Market Indicator Signals Imminent Recession

Originally Published 1 day ago — by Business Insider

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Source: Business Insider

A closely watched model, the Beveridge curve, suggests the US labor market may be on the verge of deterioration despite steady unemployment figures, with indicators like falling job vacancy rates and the jobs-workers gap signaling potential recession risks. Economists warn that even small shocks could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, highlighting ongoing fragility in the labor market.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Challenges Expected by 2026

Originally Published 3 days ago — by abcnews.go.com

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Source: abcnews.go.com

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026, with rates settling at 3.4% by 2028, while 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise slightly, impacting mortgage rates. The report also projects a peak in unemployment at 4.6% in 2026, with GDP growth slowing to around 1.8-2.2% through 2028, influenced by recent fiscal policies and immigration trends. Inflation is expected to remain above 2% in the near term, gradually decreasing by 2028.

Mixed Insights on Tariffs' Impact on Inflation and Economy

Originally Published 6 days ago — by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

The article examines historical data on large tariff increases, particularly around 2025, showing that such shocks historically raised unemployment and lowered inflation, possibly due to increased uncertainty, and discusses implications for current monetary policy decisions.

US Economy Faces Uncertainty but Shows Growth Potential in 2026

Originally Published 11 days ago — by MarketWatch

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Source: MarketWatch

As 2026 approaches, experts express concerns about a fragile US economy with a weak labor market, rising unemployment, and potential inflation shocks driven by structural changes, migrant worker deportations, and policy issues, despite optimistic forecasts from the Federal Reserve and Wall Street.

US Economic Outlook for 2026: Key Insights and Predictions

Originally Published 12 days ago — by The Guardian

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Source: The Guardian

The global economic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderation in growth due to trade tensions, inflation normalization, and rising unemployment, despite some optimism about AI-driven productivity and stabilizing interest rates. Key risks include a potential tech bubble, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal vulnerabilities, with the US leading growth among major economies.

The bleak future of job hunting: ghost jobs, AI gatekeepers, and the 2025 employment crisis

Originally Published 16 days ago — by Vox

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Source: Vox

2025 was a challenging year for job seekers in the US, with the worst hiring environment since the post-Great Recession era, driven by economic uncertainty, low job growth, and sector-specific struggles, making it a tough year especially for recent graduates and certain industries.