The article discusses how President Trump's tariffs in 2025 have led to slower job growth and increased unemployment, despite only modest increases in consumer prices, due to business uncertainty and hesitancy to invest or hire, with potential changes depending on upcoming legal rulings.
Last year, Trump's tariffs led to the slowest job growth in decades and a rise in unemployment, as businesses hesitated to hire or invest due to policy uncertainty, despite only modest increases in consumer prices.
A closely watched model, the Beveridge curve, suggests the US labor market may be on the verge of deterioration despite steady unemployment figures, with indicators like falling job vacancy rates and the jobs-workers gap signaling potential recession risks. Economists warn that even small shocks could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, highlighting ongoing fragility in the labor market.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026, with rates settling at 3.4% by 2028, while 10-year Treasury yields are expected to rise slightly, impacting mortgage rates. The report also projects a peak in unemployment at 4.6% in 2026, with GDP growth slowing to around 1.8-2.2% through 2028, influenced by recent fiscal policies and immigration trends. Inflation is expected to remain above 2% in the near term, gradually decreasing by 2028.
U.S. unemployment benefit claims increased slightly in the last week of 2025 but remain at historically low levels, indicating a still-robust labor market despite signs of weakening.
The article examines historical data on large tariff increases, particularly around 2025, showing that such shocks historically raised unemployment and lowered inflation, possibly due to increased uncertainty, and discusses implications for current monetary policy decisions.
The Gaza Strip faces a severe economic and humanitarian crisis following Israel's war, with skyrocketing unemployment, widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and a collapse of the local economy, leading to increased poverty and food insecurity among its residents.
As 2026 approaches, experts express concerns about a fragile US economy with a weak labor market, rising unemployment, and potential inflation shocks driven by structural changes, migrant worker deportations, and policy issues, despite optimistic forecasts from the Federal Reserve and Wall Street.
US unemployment benefit applications dropped below 200,000 last week, indicating low layoffs despite signs of a weakening labor market, with recent data showing mixed signals about job growth and economic health.
US unemployment benefit applications dropped below 200,000 last week, indicating low layoffs despite signs of a weakening labor market, with recent data showing slower job creation and some company layoffs amid economic uncertainty.
The global economic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderation in growth due to trade tensions, inflation normalization, and rising unemployment, despite some optimism about AI-driven productivity and stabilizing interest rates. Key risks include a potential tech bubble, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal vulnerabilities, with the US leading growth among major economies.
2025 was a challenging year for job seekers in the US, with the worst hiring environment since the post-Great Recession era, driven by economic uncertainty, low job growth, and sector-specific struggles, making it a tough year especially for recent graduates and certain industries.
Despite strong GDP growth driven by AI investment and consumer spending, the US faces a 'jobless boom' with slow job creation, high unemployment, and companies doing more with fewer workers, raising concerns about the future job market.
US unemployment claims decreased to 214,000 last week, indicating a still healthy labor market despite signs of weakening, with recent job cuts and revisions suggesting a potential slowdown in job creation.
U.S. jobless claims have decreased to 214,000, lower than last year, indicating a stable low-layoff environment despite minimal hiring, with the labor market expected to remain slow but stable into 2026.