All articles tagged with #fomc
Trump’s rally has been strong, but a split FOMC, looming Fed chair transition to Kevin Warsh, and credibility concerns could threaten the rally; however, stock-market history shows bear markets are typically brief and long-term gains may still appeal to patient investors.
Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed could herald a less accommodative, more divided policy stance, potentially shrinking the balance sheet and pushing up long-term yields—risks that may translate into stock-market volatility even as confirmation remains uncertain.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, typically published about three weeks after policy decisions; the document summarizes the economic and financial conditions known to the Committee at the time and is available on the Fed Board’s website.
Minutes from the January FOMC show a divided committee: most officials favored pausing further rate cuts for now unless inflation clearly slows, while some floated the possibility of hikes if inflation remains above target; the statement was adjusted to reflect a more balanced outlook, and markets price in a potential June cut followed by another move later in the year if disinflation proceeds and labor markets stay resilient.
The article argues that while Trump's policies and buoyant buybacks have powered a Trump-era stock rally, it faces meaningful risks. Persistent FOMC dissent, a looming end of Powell’s term in May 2026, and the possibility of Warsh-led balance-sheet reduction could push long-term yields higher and tighten financial conditions. Coupled with historically high market valuations (Shiller P/E), these factors threaten to turn the Fed from a stabilizing force into a headwind, potentially ending the rally abruptly.
President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve comes as the central bank is more divided than at any point in decades. While Warsh’s appointment could sway policy, the FOMC shows hesitancy to cut rates amid stubborn inflation, with hawkish members and new appointees challenging any rapid shift. The nomination faces political and economic headwinds, including the long-standing tension between the White House and Powell’s leadership, making a swift move to lower borrowing costs uncertain.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has resigned as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, a White House post he briefly held after joining the CEA in January 2025 and taking leave in September 2025 to join the Fed Board; his Fed term expired on January 31. At the Fed he pushed for aggressive rate cuts and voted against holds, advocating larger reductions than the 0.25% moves the Fed delivered. In a CNBC interview, he noted his vacancy could clear the way for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair. Elizabeth Warren criticized the timing, and Barron’s was the first to report the departure while CNBC sought comment.
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, saying the economy has been expanding at a solid pace and the job market is stabilizing, with no guidance on when a future move might come. The decision follows last year’s rate cuts and occurs amid political/legal scrutiny of Fed leadership. Two policymakers dissented, preferring a rate cut, while Powell emphasized decisions will be data-driven and that policy remains near neutral.
The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity but still-elevated inflation and elevated uncertainty. It reaffirmed a data‑dependent stance aimed at achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, indicating it is ready to adjust policy if risks to its dual mandate emerge. Two voters preferred a 25 basis point cut, while the rest supported holding steady.
Treasury yields remained largely unchanged on the first trading day of 2026 as investors assess the US economic outlook and potential for further rate cuts, with the 10-year yield at 4.155% and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions in focus.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December 9-10, 2025, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, providing insights into the economic and financial conditions considered during the policy decision, with the minutes available on the Federal Reserve's website.
The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal a closely contested decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%, with significant dissent among officials who debated the timing and extent of future rate adjustments amid mixed economic signals and concerns over inflation and labor market conditions.
Kevin Hassett, a top contender for Fed chair, emphasized the Fed's independence and stated that President Trump’s opinions would have no weight in setting interest rates, despite Trump’s desire for influence. Hassett expressed willingness to discuss with Trump regularly but clarified that the final decision rests with the FOMC, which votes collectively. The nomination process remains open, with other candidates like Kevin Warsh also in consideration.
The Federal Reserve's FOMC announced a 1/4 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, citing moderate economic growth, slowed job gains, and elevated inflation, while emphasizing ongoing monitoring and readiness to adjust policies as needed to support maximum employment and 2% inflation.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 16–17, 2025, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, providing insights into the economic and financial conditions considered during the policy decision, available on the Fed's website.