AI Bear Case: A Hypothetical Path to a 40% S&P Selloff

MarketWatch summarizes a Citrini Research scenario in which widespread AI adoption disrupts demand and boosts automation, triggering white‑collar job losses and weaker consumer spending. The model envisions a non‑cyclical downturn that could push the S&P 500 down roughly 38–40% from 2026 highs by 2027–28, with ripple effects across bonds, private credit, and housing. The authors stress it’s a scenario‑based exercise, not a forecast.