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Midterm Elections

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Prediction Markets Signal 2026 S&P 500 Correction Risk, Backed by Historical Midterm Trends
investing3 days ago

Prediction Markets Signal 2026 S&P 500 Correction Risk, Backed by Historical Midterm Trends

Kalshi contracts price in a ~58% chance of a 2026 S&P 500 correction (to 6,200 or lower), with another bet near 39% for a roughly 15% drop to 5,900. History suggests bear markets are plausible in 2026 (about 50% odds) and midterm years tend to see notable pullbacks before a post‑election rebound, while earnings are expected to rise about 15% but valuations remain elevated (about 21.5x forward). The takeaway: be cautious, only buy what you’re comfortable holding through drawdowns, and consider keeping a larger cash cushion.

via The Motley Fool|
#bear-market#investing#midterm-elections
Spanberger backs Virginia redistricting plan that could tilt four House seats
politics4 days ago

Spanberger backs Virginia redistricting plan that could tilt four House seats

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed a broad spending bill that includes maps intended to tilt the U.S. House delegation toward Democrats, creating one solid-red district in the southwest and blue-leaning districts elsewhere, with a statewide referendum set to decide the plan’s fate. The effort could add four Democratic seats if voters approve the referendum, but it faces hurdles including a court injunction in a Republican county, Virginia Supreme Court reviews, and GOP opposition accusing Spanberger of a partisan power grab. Early voting could begin March 6 ahead of an April 21 vote, though legal challenges loom over the process.

via The Washington Post|
#abigail-spanberger-politician#midterm-elections#politics
Winter’s Burden Expands as Energy Bills Soar Across Households
business4 days ago

Winter’s Burden Expands as Energy Bills Soar Across Households

A bitter winter has driven heating and electricity costs higher, leaving about one in six U.S. households behind on utility bills and totaling roughly $23 billion owed to electric and gas utilities. Heating costs are projected to rise about 9.2% this winter, electricity over 10% from a year ago, and the bill increases threaten middle‑class families, prompting calls for federal and state action and fueling political debate as energy affordability becomes a key issue ahead of the 2026 midterms.

via MS NOW|
#business#energy-bills#heating-costs
politics16 days ago

New York GOP midterm crunch: cash short, bench thin, Trump in the frame

In a deeply blue New York, the GOP is grappling with fundraising shortfalls, a dearth of viable statewide contenders after Elise Stefanik’s exit, and a campaign landscape tethered to Trump as it defends a shrinking set of House battlegrounds; Bruce Blakeman leads the ticket but faces tough polling against Gov. Kathy Hochul, while several would-be rivals have abandoned races, leaving the party with a thinner bench and uncertain prospects in key districts.

via Politico|
#candidates#fundraising#midterm-elections
2026 Stock Market Outlook: Risks and Opportunities
finance1 month ago

2026 Stock Market Outlook: Risks and Opportunities

The article analyzes historical indicators like the Shiller P/E ratio and Buffett Indicator, which suggest high market valuations, but also considers factors like upcoming midterm elections and the current bull market's longevity. It concludes that cycles may influence the market more than valuations in 2026, predicting a moderate pullback followed by a rally, and advises investors to use dollar-cost averaging with ETFs. The overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, with no clear prediction of a crash.

via The Motley Fool|
#2026#finance#market-cycle