
2032 Moon Encounter Could Spark Earthbound Meteor Showers
Astronomers say the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4.3% chance of striking the Moon in December 2032, potentially releasing about 8 megatons of energy and producing a naked-eye flash with magnitude around -2.5 to -3; an infrared afterglow could last hours and the impact could fling up to 100 million kilograms of lunar rocks toward Earth, sparking days-long meteor showers. The finding is based on 10,000 simulations and a preprint, with follow-up observations around the 2032 flyby recommended to better constrain the timeline and likely impact location.













