tldrdaily.news logo
Tag

Global Recession

All articles tagged with #global recession

economics1 year ago

"IMF Economist: Global Recession Risk Minimal, Despite Warning on US Debt and Spending"

The International Monetary Fund's top economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, has expressed minimal concern about a global recession, citing strong economic performance in the U.S. and certain emerging markets. Despite geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in oil markets, the IMF has raised its global growth outlook to 3.2% for 2024 and 2025. However, Gita Gopinath, the IMF's deputy managing director, highlighted geopolitical risks as a significant concern, particularly regarding potential implications for oil prices.

via CNBC|
#economic-growth#economics#geopolitical-risks
finance-and-economy1 year ago

"Tech-Led U.S. Exceptionalism: The Key to High Oil Prices and Big Tech Rally"

The U.S. economy continues to outperform other G7 economies, largely due to its strong technology sector, with chipmaking giant Nvidia leading the way. Despite concerns about inflation, Wall St stocks rallied, and Thursday's economic health checks will provide the next juncture. Japan slipped into recession, while Britain's economy also contracted, putting pressure on their central banks to ease interest rates. The U.S. interest rate picture softened as more dovish Federal Reserve officials suggested potential rate cuts, while the European Central Bank boss cautioned against cutting rates too early.

via Reuters|
#central-banks#finance-and-economy#global-recession
energy2 years ago

"Allianz Trade Warns of Potential $140 Oil Amid Middle East Crisis"

Allianz Trade has warned that crude oil prices could surge to $140 per barrel, potentially triggering a global recession. The Paris-based company cited escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, as a potential catalyst for the price surge. Ana Boata, head of economic research at Allianz Trade, stated that higher oil prices could lead to a slowdown in global growth, with central banks adopting a wait-and-see approach before cutting interest rates. While this scenario is not the baseline projection, Boata estimated a 20% probability for this downside scenario.

via OilPrice.com|
#allianz-trade#crude-oil#energy
economy2 years ago

Japan's Export Decline Raises Economic Concerns

Japan's exports have fallen for the first time in nearly 2.5 years, with a 0.3% decrease in July compared to the previous year, due to weakened demand for light oil and chip-making equipment. This raises concerns about a global recession as key markets like China experience a slowdown. While a key gauge of capital expenditure rose in June, manufacturers anticipate a decline in core orders in the current quarter due to weak offshore demand. The data highlights the fragility of Japan's export engine, which has been relied upon to support the country's economy.

via Reuters|
#china#economic-slowdown#economy
economy2 years ago

Economist David Roche predicts global recession avoidance and central bank policy shifts

Veteran strategist David Roche believes that the global economy will avoid a recession, but central banks will need to "change the goalposts" on inflation. Despite concerns about high inflation, Roche argues that labor markets and disposable income are behaving differently this time, suggesting that a catastrophic collapse in employment, which would lead to a recession, is unlikely. Roche suggests that central banks may need to change their inflation targets or subtly shift their goals to bring inflation back towards the desired levels without causing a long period of pain. However, JPMorgan Asset Management warns that the current market positioning is built on an economic outlook that is "too good to be true," and that a meaningful hit to growth is necessary for core inflation to reach tolerable levels. Higher volatility and pressure on total returns across risk assets are expected in the coming months.

via CNBC|
#central-banks#economy#global-recession
economy2 years ago

Bracing for a Mild Global Recession: Nouriel Roubini's Warning

Economist Nouriel Roubini warns that a global recession is looming, with three potential scenarios posing serious risks to markets. The most positive outcome would be a "soft landing" where central banks manage to bring inflation down without triggering a recession. However, a "hard landing" scenario could lead to a protracted recession and financial instability. If central banks fail to tame inflation, a fourth scenario of allowing above-target inflation could emerge. The eurozone is already in a technical recession, the UK's growth has slowed, and the US experienced a sharp slowdown in the first quarter. China's recovery has stalled, and emerging markets are facing anemic growth and high inflation. Central banks may need to raise rates further, increasing the risk of an economic contraction and new debt and banking stresses. The possibility of a short and shallow recession has become more likely, which could erode consumer and business sentiment and potentially lead to a more severe downturn. Asset prices, including stocks and bonds, could be negatively impacted in these scenarios.

via MarketWatch|
#bond-investors#central-banks#economy
finance2 years ago

Nasdaq's 8-week winning streak ends as global recession fears hit U.S. stocks.

US stocks ended lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq snapping an eight-week winning streak, as investors sought safety in bonds and the US dollar amid concerns that interest-rate hikes by central banks might harm global economic growth. The S&P 500 index was down 1.4%, the Dow industrials logged a weekly drop of 1.7%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 6 basis points to 3.737%, while crude prices fell 0.5% to $69.16 per barrel. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit its highest level in a year after three financial services giants filed applications for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

via MarketWatch|
#bonds#finance#global-recession
finance2 years ago

Investor Pessimism Peaks Amid Credit Crunch and Recession Fears

Investor pessimism has surged to the highest level this year amid fears over a looming recession and the threat of a credit crunch for US consumers and businesses, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey. About two-thirds of investors are bracing for a weaker economy over the next year, the highest since December. The survey identified the bank credit crunch and a global recession as the top risk to markets. The clock is running out for lawmakers to lift the debt limit, and although an overwhelming share of investors expect a debt ceiling resolution ahead of the so-called X-date, that is a marked drop from April.

via Fox Business|
#bank-credit-crunch#debt-ceiling#economic-growth