In October 2025, China's consumer prices returned to positive growth at 0.2%, ending a period of deflation, aided by holiday demand, while producer prices continued to decline but at a slower rate, reflecting ongoing economic challenges amid trade tensions and a housing downturn. The government aims to boost domestic consumption to support economic growth.
U.S. wholesale inflation surged in July, driven by tariffs on imports, with producer prices rising 0.9% from June and 3.3% year-over-year, potentially leading to higher consumer prices. The report highlights the complex impact of tariffs, with some firms absorbing costs and others passing them on, amid political and legal uncertainties. These inflation trends are influencing Federal Reserve policy considerations.
U.S. wholesale inflation surged in July, driven by Trump’s tariffs increasing import costs, with producer prices rising 0.9% from June and 3.3% year-over-year, signaling potential future increases in consumer prices as businesses may pass on higher costs.
U.S. wholesale inflation remained unchanged in June, with producer prices rising only 0.3% from May and 2.3% year-over-year, indicating controlled inflation despite concerns over tariffs and recent consumer price increases, as the Federal Reserve remains cautious about the impact of trade policies.
China's producer prices fell by 3.6% in June, the largest decline in nearly two years, deepening deflation amid ongoing price wars and overcapacity issues, while consumer prices showed slight growth, prompting concerns over sustained economic slowdown and the need for policy stimulus.
China's consumer inflation rate fell to a five-month low of 0.2% in November, missing expectations, as the economy shows signs of slowing. Core inflation rose slightly, while producer prices continued to decline, indicating entrenched deflationary pressures. Despite government stimulus efforts, sluggish domestic demand persists. Analysts expect deflation to continue, with near-zero CPI figures likely to persist into next year. Meanwhile, China's economy shows some recovery signs, with strong retail sales and manufacturing growth, but risks remain, particularly in the real estate sector.
U.S. producer prices rose in October, driven by higher service costs, indicating a slowdown in disinflation. Despite this, the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates in December, though the overall rate-cutting cycle may be less aggressive due to resilient economic activity and persistent inflation. The producer price index increased by 0.2% in October, with notable rises in portfolio management fees and airline fares, while food and gasoline prices fell.
US producer prices rose 2.1% from a year ago, marking the most significant increase in 11 months, with the producer price index for final demand showing a 0.2% monthly increase in March, following a sharp advance in February. Certain categories contributing to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge saw more muted increases.
U.S. stocks fell as a hotter-than-expected producer prices report raised concerns about inflation, dampening hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq showed the largest decline, with all three indexes posting a weekly decline after five consecutive weeks of gains. The data could prompt the Fed to delay rate cuts, with Treasury yields spiking after the report. Despite robust corporate earnings and surging enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, most megacap stocks dropped, while Roku slid on forecasting a bigger first-quarter loss and Coinbase surged after posting its first profit since 2021.
US wholesale prices rose 0.3% in January, indicating ongoing inflation pressures, with core prices climbing 0.5%. Public frustration with inflation remains high, impacting President Biden's re-election bid. The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting its benchmark interest rate, despite optimism that inflation is headed lower. Economists forecast a jump in core prices in the Fed's preferred gauge, potentially leading to a rate cut in May or June.
U.S. Treasury yields surged after January's higher-than-expected producer prices report, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.3%. The increase was driven by a 0.3% rise in the producer price index, exceeding economist forecasts, and follows other key economic data releases this week. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators for insights into inflation and potential monetary policy changes, amid uncertainty about the timing and extent of future interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.
China's producer prices fell for the 16th consecutive month in January, while consumer prices slipped for the fourth month, highlighting the challenge Beijing faces in reflating its economy. The producer price index declined 2.5% from a year earlier, slightly better than expected, while the consumer price index fell 0.8%, exceeding the median estimate. This emphasizes fears of deflation and reflects the "tortuous" economic recovery after the country's zero-Covid curbs. China's economic challenges are exacerbated by a property market slump and limited bargaining power for companies.
China's producer prices have been falling for 15 consecutive months, leading to a plunge in industrial profits and factory activity contraction. Smaller Chinese exporters are facing the threat of survival due to relentless price wars and shrinking business, as higher interest rates abroad and rising trade protectionism squeeze demand. Policymakers are urged to prioritize fixing deflation over reaching growth targets, as sluggish exports necessitate stimulating household consumption. The prolonged factory deflation is exacerbating China's economic challenges, with concerns about overcapacity and inefficient monetary policy.
South Korea's Kospi led gains in Asia-Pacific markets, with the index rising 2.87% and posting a weekly gain of 5.47%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.47% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rebounded 0.41%. South Korea's January inflation slowed for the third straight month to 2.8%, and Australia's producer price index rose 4.1% year on year in the fourth quarter. Aozora Bank shares tumbled to a three-year low due to U.S. commercial property losses, and the U.S. manufacturing sector remained in contraction during January, while prices posted an unexpected jump.
Japan's equity market continues its upward trend, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a 34-year peak, but concerns arise as producer price figures suggest a potential shift from disinflation to deflation. The Japanese bond market reflects investor uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's policy path, while in China, the People's Bank of China maintains its medium-term policy rate, indicating a delicate balance between stimulating the economy and managing the yuan's value. Key economic indicators from Japan, Australia, and South Korea are expected to provide further market direction.