All articles tagged with #inflation expectations
A government shutdown has led to a significant decline in consumer sentiment, reaching a three-year low, with widespread pessimism about personal finances and the economy, although stock market gains and strong holiday sales forecasts provide some optimism. The survey also indicates rising unemployment expectations, but data is limited due to the shutdown.
The September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates rising short- and long-term inflation expectations, deteriorating labor market outlooks with increased unemployment and job loss fears, and mixed household financial sentiments, reflecting cautious consumer outlooks amid economic uncertainties.
Consumer confidence in the US has sharply declined in September, with key indicators suggesting increased recession risks, despite Wall Street's optimism. The Expectations Index fell below recession warning levels, and consumer sentiment about current economic conditions has worsened, raising concerns about future economic stability amid potential data reporting disruptions due to the government shutdown.
The August 2025 survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows a slight increase in short-term inflation expectations, worsening job and unemployment outlooks, and a decline in job finding prospects, while household income growth remains stable and credit perceptions fluctuate.
Consumer sentiment in August declined due to new tariffs imposed by President Trump, with inflation expectations rising and economic growth slowing, though some sectors remain resilient amid ongoing trade tensions and policy changes.
The stock market experienced a slight decline with the Dow Jones falling 0.3% amid mixed earnings reports and economic data, including a drop in inflation expectations. Netflix's stock dropped over 5% despite beating earnings forecasts, while other stocks like Charles Schwab and Coinbase rose significantly. Key movers included Chevron and Nvidia, with broader market sentiment influenced by consumer confidence and inflation outlooks.
The June 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a slight decrease in short-term inflation expectations, improved household financial outlooks, and positive trends in employment and credit access, indicating cautious optimism among consumers despite some rising costs in commodities and housing.
Consumer sentiment in June rebounded sharply by 16% as tariff concerns eased, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook despite ongoing risks and elevated inflation expectations, according to the University of Michigan survey.
Consumer sentiment in June rebounded significantly due to easing trade tensions and reduced tariff shock, with optimism about the economy increasing and inflation expectations falling, though concerns about long-term risks remain.
US consumer sentiment saw its largest increase since January 2024, driven by easing concerns about the economy and a significant drop in short-term inflation expectations, indicating a more optimistic outlook amid stable trade policies and modest inflation pressures.
The May 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a decline in inflation expectations across all time horizons, slight improvements in labor market optimism, and mixed signals in household financial outlooks, indicating cautious optimism about the economic outlook.
Governor Waller discusses the U.S. economic outlook, emphasizing that tariff-induced inflation is likely temporary and will not be persistent, provided long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. He highlights the impact of trade policy uncertainty, the resilience of the labor market, and the divergence between household and market-based inflation expectations, concluding that current data supports a cautious approach to rate hikes and potential rate cuts later in the year.
US consumer sentiment and Americans' view on the economy both fell more than expected in April, as inflation expectations rose, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping to 77.9. The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations increased to 3.1% in April from 2.9% in March, reflecting frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled. This comes as the Consumer Price Index rose for the third straight month to 3.5% from a year ago, and inflation has remained well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for more than two years.
Long-term inflation expectations have risen, posing a potential challenge for the Federal Reserve, as indicated by a survey from the New York Federal Reserve. While the one-year outlook remains unchanged, expectations for the three-year and five-year ranges have increased, surpassing the Fed's 2% goal for 12-month inflation. This suggests that the central bank may need to maintain tighter policies for a longer period. Additionally, the survey also revealed concerns about job prospects and fluctuations in various cost outlooks.
The final University of Michigan sentiment index for January 2024 rose to 79.0 from the preliminary 78.8, marking the highest level since July 2021. Consumer sentiment surged 13% to its highest level since July 2021, with positive views on personal finances and the macroeconomy. Despite overall optimism, there remains significant disagreement about the economy's future, with 41% anticipating good times ahead for business conditions and 48% expecting bad times. Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 2.9%, the lowest since December 2020, and within the pre-pandemic range of 2.3-3.0%.