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Leading Economic Index

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economics1 year ago•2 min saved

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators No Longer Predicting Recession

The Conference Board has abandoned its prediction of a U.S. recession, despite its Leading Economic Index indicating flatlining economic output in the coming months. The index fell 0.4% in January to its lowest level since April 2020, but the decline rate has slowed, and six out of its 10 components were positive contributors over the past six months. Factors contributing to the change in outlook include a surge in stock prices, low unemployment benefit filings, and positive measures of future credit availability and consumer spending. Economists remain optimistic about the economy's growth mode and expect solid GDP growth in the first quarter.

via Reuters|

#conference-board #economic-outlook #economics

economy2 years ago•4 min saved

"Recession Predictions Persist as Leading Economic Indicators Fall"

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a leading indicator for business cycle recessions, has predicted a recession for early 2024, after previously predicting recessions for late 2022, early 2023, mid-2023, and late 2023, none of which materialized. The LEI for October 2023 indicates a negative trajectory and predicts a very short recession due to elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending. However, the US economy has shown strong GDP growth, with a 4.9% increase in Q3, contradicting the recession predictions. The reasons behind the failure of predictive models in the current economic climate will be explored in a future article.

via WOLF STREET|

#economic-indicators #economy #gdp-growth

economy2 years ago•1 min saved

Economic indicators continue downward trend, recession fears persist

The leading economic index in the US fell for the 16th consecutive month in July, but other indicators suggest a recession is not imminent. While historically a prolonged decline in the index has signaled an approaching recession, the economy has continued to expand, with strong growth expected in the third quarter. The coincident index, which measures current conditions, actually rose in July, indicating a favorable growth environment. However, concerns remain as rising interest rates could pose a risk to the economy. The leading index still suggests a potential slowdown and mild contraction in the coming months.

via MarketWatch|

#economy #federal-reserve #gdp

economics2 years ago•1 min saved

Investors Anxious as Promised Recession Fails to Materialize.

Despite the Conference Board's leading economic index declining for 14 months, Yardeni Research suggests that the US is not headed towards a recession. The firm believes that the economy has been in a rolling recession, making an economy-wide recession less likely. Job openings remain high, and the S&P 500 Index has been rallying since last October. Investors are growing weary of waiting for a widely-anticipated recession that remains a no-show.

via Benzinga|

#economics #job-openings #leading-economic-index

economy2 years ago•0 min saved

Impending Recession: What It Means for Jobs, Banks, Earnings, and Stocks.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which measures US business cycles, dropped unexpectedly and sharply to its lowest level since November 2020, marking its 12th consecutive monthly decline, the longest such run since the 2007-2009 recession. This has led to fears of an impending recession, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider another interest rate hike.

via Barron's|

#business-cycles #economy #federal-reserve