U.S. Leading Economic Indicators No Longer Predicting Recession

The Conference Board has abandoned its prediction of a U.S. recession, despite its Leading Economic Index indicating flatlining economic output in the coming months. The index fell 0.4% in January to its lowest level since April 2020, but the decline rate has slowed, and six out of its 10 components were positive contributors over the past six months. Factors contributing to the change in outlook include a surge in stock prices, low unemployment benefit filings, and positive measures of future credit availability and consumer spending. Economists remain optimistic about the economy's growth mode and expect solid GDP growth in the first quarter.