"Recession Predictions Persist as Leading Economic Indicators Fall"

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a leading indicator for business cycle recessions, has predicted a recession for early 2024, after previously predicting recessions for late 2022, early 2023, mid-2023, and late 2023, none of which materialized. The LEI for October 2023 indicates a negative trajectory and predicts a very short recession due to elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending. However, the US economy has shown strong GDP growth, with a 4.9% increase in Q3, contradicting the recession predictions. The reasons behind the failure of predictive models in the current economic climate will be explored in a future article.