Ray Dalio warns that fear of retaliation is silencing critical discussions about the U.S. economy's dire fiscal trajectory, with concerns of a debt-induced crisis looming within three years, amid rising national debt, political interference, and suppressed economic debate.
Global bond markets have temporarily stabilized after a sharp selloff, but yields remain high due to concerns over the fiscal health of major economies like Japan, the UK, and the US, with increased bond issuance and political uncertainties contributing to ongoing volatility.
The U.S. debt is projected to reach historic levels, reaching 181 percent of the country's economic output over the next 30 years, despite a recent spending standoff led by Republicans. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted that the deficit will initially fall as a share of the economy by 2027 but will start growing again, reaching levels not seen since World War II by 2053. The CBO warned of significant risks to the country's long-term fiscal climate and highlighted the need for Congress to adhere to current law. The report also emphasized the challenges of balancing fiscal improvement with lawmakers' own agendas. The CBO attributed the country's fiscal woes to persistently large deficits, rising health-care and retirement costs, and the potential insolvency of Social Security and Medicare trust funds.