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Economic Forecasts

All articles tagged with #economic forecasts

financeeconomy1 year ago

"Market Expectations for Fed Interest Rate Cuts Despite Inflation"

Economists believe that despite a recent increase in inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its forecast of three interest-rate cuts in 2024 and four in 2025, with the Federal Open Market Committee likely to keep rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range for the upcoming meeting. The majority of survey respondents anticipate the Fed officials to project three or more cuts in 2024, while over a third expect two or fewer.

via Bloomberg|
#economic-forecasts#federal-reserve#financeeconomy
economics1 year ago

RBA Forecasts Lower Growth and Inflation, Holds Rates Amid Neutral Stance

The Reserve Bank of Australia has updated its economic forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with slight downward adjustments in GDP and CPI expectations. The revisions indicate a more favorable inflation outlook and potential easing of rates over time, although inflation forecasts remain at the high end of the RBA's target range. The forecasts also point to continued but slightly tempered economic growth, with modest adjustments in inflation expectations suggesting a stabilization of price increases.

via ForexLive|
#2024#economic-forecasts#economics
economy2 years ago

Fed Officials Discuss Inflation and Rate Hikes, Stocks React

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting revealed that officials are considering the possibility of raising interest rates again to combat inflation, but they are in no rush to do so. The minutes indicated that further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate if progress towards the committee's inflation objective was insufficient. However, officials plan to assess incoming data in the coming months to determine the extent of the disinflation process. Wall Street expects an extended pause in rate hikes, and investors believe there is little chance of a rate increase at the Fed's final meeting of the year in December. The upcoming quarterly economic forecasts and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will provide important clues about the future direction of interest rates.

via The New York Times|
#economic-forecasts#economy#federal-reserve
finance2 years ago

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Clash on Fed Rate-Cut Predictions

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have divergent forecasts for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Morgan Stanley economists predict deep rate cuts over the next two years due to cooling inflation, with the central bank starting in June 2024 and making cuts in every meeting from the fourth quarter onward. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs analysts expect fewer reductions and a later start, with the first cut in the fourth quarter of 2024 and subsequent cuts through mid-2026. The forecasts reflect differing views on the strength of the economy and inflationary pressures.

via Yahoo Finance|
#economic-forecasts#federal-reserve#finance
finance2 years ago

Jamie Dimon Criticizes Central Banks and Highlights Nuclear Proliferation as Top Global Concern

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticized central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for their poor track record in economic forecasting and warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy. Dimon cautioned against relying on central banks and governments to manage economic challenges, expressing caution about what might happen next year. He highlighted the Fed's misdiagnosis on inflation and interest rates, emphasizing the need to prepare for various possibilities and probabilities. Dimon also expressed support for ESG principles but criticized the lack of a concerted strategy from the government in addressing environmental issues.

via CNBC|
#central-banks#economic-forecasts#finance
finance2 years ago

Fed Signals Prolonged Higher Interest Rates, Wall Street Reacts

The Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will remain "higher for longer," with updated economic forecasts suggesting that rates will stay elevated at least through 2026. While the central bank expects one more rate hike this year, it has lowered its inflation outlook, indicating a need for even higher real rates in 2023. The Fed sees higher real rates as necessary to slow down an economy that is growing more than expected. However, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that these forecasts are just estimates and not a definitive plan.

via Yahoo Finance|
#economic-forecasts#federal-reserve#finance
economy2 years ago

Americans' Inflation Expectations Plummet to Record Low in Fed Survey

Americans' inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest level in two years, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The median expectation is that inflation will be up 3.5% one year from now, down from a high of 7.1% in June 2022. Consumers also anticipate that inflation will continue to decline in the coming years, estimating it to be around 2.9% three years from now and five years from now. However, these expectations still exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting that sticky inflation may persist. The survey plays a crucial role in shaping the Fed's response to inflation, as actual inflation depends on consumer expectations.

via Fox Business|
#consumer-expectations#economic-forecasts#economy
economy2 years ago

Navigating Economic Uncertainty: Insights on Recession and Market Expectations

Economists are divided on whether the U.S. economy will experience a mild recession or a slowdown in the second half of 2023. Despite defying recession predictions in the first half, factors such as high inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and a warning from the yield curve have raised concerns. Some economists, like those at Goldman Sachs, believe a serious downturn is unlikely, citing fading inflation and the Fed's ability to control it. However, others, like the Conference Board, predict a fall in consumer spending and a delay in interest rate cuts. PNC bank and Fannie Mae forecast a mild recession in the fourth quarter, with uncertainties surrounding lending practices and economic activity.

via Investopedia|
#economic-forecasts#economy#inflation
business2 years ago

Anticipation builds for Fed's June meeting outcome.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their June meeting, but investors are closely watching for any hints at what could come next. The economy is feeling only part of the brunt of the Fed's past rate increases, and a pause now would allow the committee to see more data before potentially lifting rates again. The Fed will release their rate decision and fresh economic forecasts, including the "dot plot," which shows where each official expects interest rates to land by the end of the next few years. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a news conference after the meeting to explain the central bank's path ahead for interest rates.

via The New York Times|
#business#economic-forecasts#federal-reserve
finance2 years ago

RBA faces close call on interest rate decision with outlier call for rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to meet on May 2, with the consensus expectation for a hold decision on interest rates. However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is predicting a 25bp rate hike, with a 55% chance of an increase and a 45% probability of no change. The RBA is expected to retain its forecast for inflation to return to the top of the target band by mid-2025, despite Q1 23 CPI printing a little softer than the RBA’s implied profile from the February SMP. Governor Lowe will deliver a speech at the RBA Board dinner on May 2, and an updated set of economic forecasts will be published on May 6 in the May Statement on Monetary Policy.

via ForexLive|
#economic-forecasts#finance#inflation