The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, is expected to show a softer increase in March, calming some nerves after a recent report on consumer prices caused market turbulence.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE price index, increased by 0.3% last month, showing a cooling trend compared to January's 0.5% gain, while household spending rebounded, indicating a potential shift in economic activity.
The Federal Reserve's goal of returning inflation to its 2% target faces challenges as the core PCE price index rose 0.4% last month and 2.8% from a year ago, complicating plans for interest rate cuts. While some view this as a temporary setback, others warn of rising recession odds and argue that the Fed won't be able to cut rates until June. Consumer spending fell in January, indicating a potential slowdown, prompting experts to advise patience in the Fed's approach to taming inflation.
The US dollar remained steady against a basket of currencies as the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, slowed in August. The index rose 3.9% on an annual basis, down from 4.3% in July. The dollar index is down 0.40% on the day, while the euro is up 0.38% and the yen fell 0.13% against the dollar.
The core PCE price index, the inflation index favored by the Fed, re-accelerated in April, remaining near the 5% level for nearly a year, as inflation shifts from category to category. Services inflation re-accelerated in April, driven by spikes in healthcare and housing costs, while durable goods prices rose, driven by a jump in motor vehicles and parts. The PCE price index for gasoline and other energy goods spiked in April, while the PCE price index for food was roughly unchanged. The overall PCE price index re-accelerated to an increase of 4.4% in April compared to a year ago, pushed down by the year-over-year plunge in energy prices.