All articles tagged with #federal open market committee
The upcoming US inflation data for November, specifically the Core CPI, could impact future rate cut timing as markets will be watching for any unexpected rise above expectations. If the data comes in above the upper end of estimates, ongoing pricing pressures will likely influence the timing of rate cuts. Conversely, if the data falls below the lower range of estimates, it could have the opposite effect.
Goldman Sachs has lowered their forecast for US core inflation in December 2023 to 3.5% from 3.7%, but this slight adjustment is not expected to impact the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to raise interest rates this month. Market pricing indicates a high probability of an FOMC rate hike in July.
Citi warns that markets are not pricing in the downside risks for inflation ahead of the May inflation release, despite two consecutive lower-than-forecast CPI prints. Inflation expectations are higher than at the beginning of 2021, despite tighter financial conditions, lower year-over-year inflation, and higher unemployment and jobless claims. Citi predicts that core inflation will fall below 0.4% m/m in May for the first time since November. While analysts predict that higher than expected core inflation will trigger a rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee, Citi believes that the risk is the other way around.
Bitcoin dropped below $28,000 as federal regulators prepared to seize control of First Republic Bank, which was later purchased by JPMorgan. Ether followed a similar pattern, dropping more than 4%. The Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy meeting, which begins Tuesday, may cause price fluctuations in the crypto market. After soaring in March, bitcoin rose a more modest 2.5% in April amid regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties.
U.S. stocks are expected to have a quiet start on Monday as investors await a busy week of earnings and the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary-policy decision on Wednesday.
US Treasury yields fell after the release of nonfarm payroll data for March, which showed a slowdown in job growth. The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped to 3.363%, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield dipped to 3.584%. Investors are also focused on the inflation outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming monetary policy meeting.
First-quarter earnings season begins this week, with big U.S. banks' results heavily scrutinized for the impact of the past month's turmoil in the sector. Economic-data highlights include the latest inflation data and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's late-March meeting. Albertsons and CarMax will report on Tuesday, followed by Delta Air Lines and Fastenal on Thursday. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and UnitedHealth Group are all scheduled to release their first-quarter results on Friday.