JPMorgan warns that the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut could trigger a 'sell the news' event, leading to a market pullback despite recent record highs, as investors reassess the economic risks and inflation data ahead of the September Fed meeting.
After a strong May, certain stocks on Wall Street are considered overbought and may experience a pullback, indicating a potential decline following recent market gains.
US equities are sliding amid concerns over potential escalations in Middle Eastern conflicts, prompting discussions among Wall Street experts about the market fallout. While some believe the pullback is a "buyable dip" due to strong earnings, others caution that geopolitical headwinds and rising yields could hinder further market growth. Historically, geopolitical events have led to initial selloffs followed by a rebound, prompting some investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
CNBC's "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer advises investors to view potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than threats, suggesting that a decline could be imminent and recommending raising cash to prepare. He encourages investors to buy quality stocks at lower prices during pullbacks, likening them to rain for portfolio growth. Cramer specifically mentions NVIDIA Corp as a potential buying opportunity during a pullback and expresses confidence in the company's future prospects. This advice comes amid significant market fluctuations and differing predictions about the market's future, making Cramer's insight timely and relevant for investors.
Despite the recent market pullback, analysts believe it's a short-term dip and anticipate fresh record highs in a few weeks, presenting a buying opportunity. While some caution that downside risks are non-trivial and tail risks are real, others maintain that the narratives driving soft landing expectations remain unchanged. The recent inflation surprise has only marginally affected expectations for Fed rate cuts, but concerns persist about trends in supercore inflation and the potential for a "no landing" scenario.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts a stock market pullback in early 2024, despite overall bullish expectations for the year. He anticipates a 5% consolidation after January's all-time highs, driven by four factors: market anticipation of more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts than expected, potential delays in AI development due to systematic hacks, the need to consolidate late 2023's rapid gains, and typical election year market patterns. However, any dips are seen as buying opportunities, with sidelined cash poised to support a quick recovery.
The S&P 500 experienced a 2.4% decline last week, bringing it 7.9% below its high-water mark set in July. The market is still adjusting to its gains and grappling with high and rising interest rates. Bitcoin has rallied this year but remains down 48% from its peak in October 2021. Solar energy stocks took a hit due to the increasing cost of financing solar installations caused by higher interest rates. The S&P Top 7 mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market, accounting for 87% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gain.
Ray Dalio's Pure Alpha fund at Bridgewater Associates reportedly took a bearish stance on U.S. equities in late July, just as the S&P 500 index reached its recent high. The fund's analysis showed bearish positioning in 15 out of 28 assets, including U.S. stocks and Treasuries. Since then, the S&P 500 has dropped 3.8%, leading to retreats in investment vehicles like SPY, IVV, and VOO. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have climbed, with the 2-Year and 10-Year yields reaching highs not seen since October 2022.
Tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq-100, are experiencing their worst stretch of losses since December, with the index on track for a two-week pullback of 4%. The performance of valuable tech stocks like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla is raising concerns that this pullback could lead to a broader selloff. Analysts are also noting discouraging signs, such as tech-heavy ETFs nearing a "volume pocket" that could result in further declines. Rising Treasury yields and underwhelming quarterly earnings have added pressure to tech stocks. The question now is whether the unraveling of Big Tech's advance will impact the broader market or if other sectors will help offset the losses.
Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee warns investors to brace for a potential stock-market pullback in August, citing historical performance trends and the already-stretched nature of the market's 2023 performance. Lee points out that August has historically been one of the worst months for stock-market returns, with an average return of just 0.01% since 1950. He also highlights that when stocks fall in August, the average drawdown is 3.2%, implying potential downside for the S&P 500. Additionally, stock-market underperformance in August worsens when the S&P 500 has gained more than 15% through the end of July. Despite gains in August 2020 and 2021, Lee believes widespread wariness could result in a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, he expects any pullbacks to be shallow.
Dow Jones futures rose slightly while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped as Nvidia stock slid on reports that the U.S. is considering expanding chip export restrictions, particularly on artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The potential restrictions could impact Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom, and may lead to retaliatory measures from China. Despite this, the stock market rally had a strong session with gains in various sectors, including airlines, technology, and industrials. Investors are advised to cautiously take advantage of buying opportunities while remaining prepared for potential market retreats.
The stock market rally continued with strong gains, led by Microsoft, Apple, and Meta Platforms. However, the risks of a market pullback raise concerns for new buys in the short run, as the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 look increasingly extended, with the S&P 500 also starting to look stretched. Adobe rose on strong results and earnings guidance, while Cava surged 99% in its debut. Investors are advised to exercise patience and wait for a market pullback to create safer buying opportunities in new stocks or adding to existing holdings.
Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced moderate losses over the last seven days due to a rising dollar. Bitcoin is down 7.9% and trades for $26,817. Ethereum dipped 5.8% over the seven days and currently changes hands at $1,800. Other cryptocurrencies that dipped more than 8% this week include Polygon, Avalanche, Toncoin, and Internet Computer. In other news, Bittrex filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Texas lawmakers voted in favor of an update to the state’s Bill of Rights to include the right to own, hold, and use digital currencies, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce criticized the SEC for its regulation-by-enforcement approach toward the digital asset industry.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a pullback on Wednesday, with Bitcoin falling below $30,000 and Ether trading below the $2,000 support/resistance zone. Altcoins also saw losses, with only two tokens in the top 200 seeing gains. Analysts note that Bitcoin's daily uptrend remains intact, but bulls need to show fresh power to keep it alive. Michaël van de Poppe warns of a retest of support at $29,000 if tomorrow's unemployment data has any surprises. The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.22 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance rate is 46.2%.