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Isw

All articles tagged with #isw

world1 day ago•6 min saved

ISW: Battlefield Shifts Undermine Russia’s Victory Narrative in Ukraine War

A February 2026 ISW assessment argues that battlefield realities negate Moscow’s claim of an inevitable Ukrainian defeat, noting Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed significant ground since December and February, eroding Russia’s original war aims; Russia has not secured a permanent edge and faces setbacks as it moves to stabilize positions ahead of potential renewed offensives, while Ukraine’s gains and Russian command‑and‑control failures complicate Moscow’s plans.

via Euromaidan Press|

#battlefield #counterattacks #isw

world3 days ago•32 min saved

Ukraine Reverses Moscow Momentum as ISW Flags Kremlin Strain

ISW notes Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk and in Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhia directions netted about 165 square kilometers in February, challenging Moscow’s claims of an inevitable victory and signaling Russia will have to fight to stabilize defenses this spring. Russia faces manpower and funding strains, inflation, and sanctions, with talk of limited involuntary mobilization and tighter information control; Kremlin also leverages SVR claims about Ukraine’s nuclear status to justify the war and press Western security guarantees. Ukraine, backed by Western allies, remains committed to democracy despite ongoing Russian strikes, and ISW warns that while no large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough has occurred, localized gains could slow a broader Russian offensive in the near term.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#battlefield #isw #mobilization

world5 days ago•26 min saved

Kremlin bets on narrative of inevitable victory as ISW flags limited 2026 gains

ISW and Rudskoy offer conflicting pictures of 2026 progress: Rudskoy claims roughly 900 km2 and 42 settlements seized since 2026, while ISW assesses only about 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers gained so far, with limited advances balanced by Ukrainian counterattacks around Hulyaipole, Novopavlivka, and other fronts. The Kremlin continues cognitive warfare to sell inevitable victory and expands a “buffer zone” along the border, while cracking down on former pro-Russian separatists to control the information space ahead of the 2026 State Duma elections. Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets persist, and Moscow–Belarus coordination intensifies, but overall gains are marginal and costly.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#isw #propaganda #russia

world11 days ago•6 min saved

Starlink blockade hinders Russia's elite drone unit, ISW reports

ISW says SpaceX’s ban on unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine is already hampering Russia’s Rubikon Center drone unit and its deep-strike capabilities; a Ukrainian commander says Russia will likely need about six months to find a workaround, while Ukraine’s unmanned forces must balance rear-area strikes with frontline defense.

via Euromaidan Press|

#drones #isw #rubikon-center

world19 days ago•9 min saved

ISW Update: Russia targets Ukraine's energy grid as diplomacy stalls

ISW reports Russia launched a major strike against Ukraine’s energy system, specifically targeting substations supporting nuclear power plants, while leveraging a temporary moratorium on strikes to stockpile drones and missiles for further attacks. The United States is pressuring Ukraine to move toward a peace deal, while Russia remains adamant that Kyiv concede fully. Separately, Russian forces have advanced near the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka area and near Pokrovsk, and a February 6 assassination attempt is said to have left GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseyev alive.

via Kyiv Post|

#energy-infrastructure #isw #peace-negotiations

world1 month ago•28 min saved

Winter drag slows Russian advances as ISW flags tempered momentum in Ukraine

ISW’s January 14, 2026 assessment says Russian advances slowed late 2025 into January, likely due to harsher winter conditions and pressure to hit year-end goals. Russian gains declined after peaking in early December, with about 276 km2 gained Dec 1–17, then ~89 km2 (Dec 17–31) and ~74 km2 (Dec 31–Jan 13). While poor weather briefly aided some advances, colder temperatures are constraining the infantry-heavy offensive template. Moscow continues to push broader territorial aims beyond the current peace plans (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa obasts) and sustains a cognitive warfare campaign with limited cross-border attacks in northern Ukraine, not yet signaling a major northern offensive. Ukraine has made political-military moves (e.g., Fedorov as defense minister) while Western diplomacy stalls; Russia cites Lavrov’s remarks and the Novorossiya framing to press for greater concessions. A Polish cyberattack on its energy grid is noted as part of broader strategic pressure. Frontlines are not reported as collapsing, and ISW notes no confirmed major Russian advances on January 14.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#cross-border-attacks #isw #peace-plan

world1 month ago•13 min saved

Iran Protests Push Regime to the Edge of Fragility

Protests across Iran are the most serious domestic challenge to the Islamic Republic, met with unprecedented force and an internet blackout; while authorities say activity is under control, open-source indicators including security defections, withdrawals, IRGC deployments, possible foreign militias, simultaneous protests in cities and rural areas, rising security casualties, leaks, and harsh framing signal mounting instability and the possibility of regime change, though several indicators are only partially tripped or unobserved and the outcome remains uncertain. The regime relies on the LEC, Basij, IRGC, and Artesh to suppress unrest, and forecasts about the regime's fate remain uncertain given evolving factors and potential external action.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#iran #isw #protests

world-news1 year ago•1 min saved

Russia Intensifies Efforts to Seize Donetsk Oblast

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has intensified its military offensive in southeastern Ukraine, capturing several settlements near Vuhledar and advancing in the Velyka Novosilka area. Since September 2024, Russian forces have gained over 1,100 square kilometers in the region, exploiting vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses. The offensive aims to encircle Velyka Novosilka and close pockets of Ukrainian forces around Kurakhove, marking a significant shift from the previous stalemate.

via Euromaidan Press|

#donetsk-oblast #isw #military-offensive

international-relations1 year ago•2 min saved

"Russia Bolstering Military in Anticipation of NATO Conflict: Reports"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russia's focus on reviving its economy may be in preparation for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, potentially on a shorter timeline than previously thought. Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent remarks and actions suggest a willingness to risk ties with the country's elite in order to stabilize the economy for potential future conflict. This comes amid reports from Estonia's foreign intelligence service indicating that Russia is preparing for a confrontation with the West, with the Kremlin possibly anticipating a conflict with NATO within the next decade.

via Business Insider|

#international-relations #isw #nato

international-relations1 year ago•3 min saved

"Putin Accelerates Preparations for Conflict with NATO, Analysts Warn"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is potentially preparing for a conflict with NATO on a shorter timeline than previously thought, with signs indicating financial, economic, and military preparations for a large-scale conventional conflict. Tensions between Russia and NATO have been high since the invasion of Ukraine, and recent statements from Putin and warnings from NATO officials have raised concerns about the possibility of a war between Russia and the alliance. The ISW also highlighted structural moves within the Russian military to support the war in Ukraine while building capabilities for a potential full-scale conflict with NATO.

via Newsweek|

#international-relations #isw #nato

international-conflict2 years ago•2 min saved

"Russian Offensive: The Fall of Avdiivka and Shifting Control in Ukraine"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian losses in capturing the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka may exceed those in the 10-year Soviet-Afghan war, with estimates of up to 47,000 Russian casualties. Russian forces used costly "human wave" tactics, overwhelming Ukrainian positions with large numbers of soldiers, resulting in high casualties. Despite Russian gains, the ISW emphasized that Ukraine has not lost and the situation is far from hopeless, with Russia facing limited gains and extreme costs in the ongoing conflict.

via Business Insider|

#avdiivka #international-conflict #isw

military-conflict2 years ago•1 min saved

"Russian Air Superiority Leads to Capture of Avdiivka: ISW Report"

Russian forces were able to capture Avdiivka due to temporary localized air superiority, using glide bombs to provide close air support to advancing infantry troops. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that delays in Western security assistance may further constrain Ukrainian air defenses, allowing Russian forces to replicate this tactic at scale in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka after sustaining significant losses, with the Russian army reportedly losing 47,186 troops, 364 tanks, and 5 aircraft during the four-month defensive operation.

via Ukrinform|

#air-superiority #avdiivka #isw

politicsinternational-relations2 years ago•2 min saved

"Putin Escalates Rhetoric Against West Amid Rising Tensions and Casualties"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is portraying the conflict in Ukraine as a broader war against the West to rationalize the significant losses of Russian troops. Despite substantial casualties, with estimates of 315,000 since the war's onset, Russia has made minimal territorial advances. Putin's recent rhetoric and actions, including a meeting with wounded soldiers, seem to be aimed at providing ideological justification for continued combat and to frame the West, not Ukraine, as the primary adversary. This narrative could be part of a strategy to maintain Russian military mobilization and to potentially pressure the West into negotiations that could undermine Ukraine's position.

via Newsweek|

##isw #politicsinternational-relations

military2 years ago•2 min saved

Ukraine's Effective Tactics Diminish Russia's Ka-52 Helicopter Usage: ISW

Ukraine has become more proficient at destroying Russia's Ka-52 attack helicopters, which have been a significant weapon in Russia's battle against Ukraine's counteroffensive. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian commanders are now more hesitant to deploy these helicopters. While Ukraine's improved ability against the Ka-52 has not seriously undermined Russian defenses, Russia has increased its use of strike drones and artillery units to repel Ukrainian assaults.

via Business Insider|

#counteroffensive #isw #ka-52-helicopter

conflictinternational-relations2 years ago•2 min saved

Russia's Stranglehold on Bakhmut Wavers as Ukraine's Counteroffensive Gains Momentum

Russia's control over the war-torn city of Bakhmut in Ukraine may be slipping, as the Ukrainian counteroffensive appears to be gaining ground. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Ukrainian forces have surrounded Bakhmut and have the city and Russian supply routes under fire control. This development could potentially trap Russian forces within the city. While progress in the counteroffensive has been slower compared to previous efforts, ISW maintains that it is not indicative of a stalemate and that Ukraine still has the potential to retake large areas.

via Newsweek|

#bakhmut #conflictinternational-relations #counteroffensive