
ISW: Battlefield Shifts Undermine Russia’s Victory Narrative in Ukraine War
A February 2026 ISW assessment argues that battlefield realities negate Moscow’s claim of an inevitable Ukrainian defeat, noting Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed significant ground since December and February, eroding Russia’s original war aims; Russia has not secured a permanent edge and faces setbacks as it moves to stabilize positions ahead of potential renewed offensives, while Ukraine’s gains and Russian command‑and‑control failures complicate Moscow’s plans.







