Ukraine Reverses Moscow Momentum as ISW Flags Kremlin Strain

ISW notes Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk and in Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhia directions netted about 165 square kilometers in February, challenging Moscow’s claims of an inevitable victory and signaling Russia will have to fight to stabilize defenses this spring. Russia faces manpower and funding strains, inflation, and sanctions, with talk of limited involuntary mobilization and tighter information control; Kremlin also leverages SVR claims about Ukraine’s nuclear status to justify the war and press Western security guarantees. Ukraine, backed by Western allies, remains committed to democracy despite ongoing Russian strikes, and ISW warns that while no large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough has occurred, localized gains could slow a broader Russian offensive in the near term.