Kremlin bets on narrative of inevitable victory as ISW flags limited 2026 gains

ISW and Rudskoy offer conflicting pictures of 2026 progress: Rudskoy claims roughly 900 km2 and 42 settlements seized since 2026, while ISW assesses only about 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers gained so far, with limited advances balanced by Ukrainian counterattacks around Hulyaipole, Novopavlivka, and other fronts. The Kremlin continues cognitive warfare to sell inevitable victory and expands a “buffer zone” along the border, while cracking down on former pro-Russian separatists to control the information space ahead of the 2026 State Duma elections. Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets persist, and Moscow–Belarus coordination intensifies, but overall gains are marginal and costly.