Goldman Sachs' 2026 Outlooks predict sturdy global growth of 2.8%, with the US outperforming, positive equity markets despite potential volatility, and key themes including technological advancements, geopolitical power races, and energy supply dynamics shaping the economic landscape.
Chinese stocks declined due to renewed US-China trade tensions, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping over 2%, while the yuan remained steady and bond futures rose, reflecting investor jitters but also opportunities for buying the dip amid ongoing trade negotiations and economic developments.
Societe Generale strategists suggest increasing stock allocations and reducing cash in portfolios, as the Fed's rate cuts in a non-recessionary environment are expected to boost global equities, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 7,300 by mid-2026, supported by resilient earnings and favorable fiscal dynamics worldwide.
Global equities and the dollar rose following positive economic data and earnings reports, with U.S. retail sales and jobless claims exceeding expectations, boosting investor confidence. Oil prices increased due to Middle East supply concerns, while gold prices declined after upbeat economic signals. Major stock indices hit new highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and stable labor market indicators.
Asian shares rose as Samsung Electronics' surprise stock buyback boosted market sentiment, offsetting earlier concerns about reduced expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. A key regional equities gauge increased by 0.3%, with gains in Hong Kong and mainland China, although Japanese benchmarks declined.
Gold prices have fallen to near two-month lows as investors shift towards equities and cryptocurrencies following Donald Trump's election victory, which has boosted the dollar and U.S. stock markets. The risk-on sentiment has led to a decline in gold, with spot prices dropping nearly 7% since the election. Despite the current downturn, analysts remain optimistic about gold's fundamentals, citing potential geopolitical tensions and central bank demand as factors that could support higher prices in the future.
Betting markets have increased Trump's Presidential odds following a failed assassination attempt, boosting shares of the meme-stock social network $DJT by 70% premarket. S&P 500 futures are up, and a bear steepener in bonds suggests a potential Republican sweep, which could lead to larger deficits, tax cuts, and USD outperformance. However, political outcomes remain uncertain.
JPMorgan analysts predict a $50 billion outflow from US equities due to quarter-end rebalancing by institutional investors, including defined benefit pension funds, balanced mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds. This could reverse the recent support provided by declining short interest in SPY and QQQ ETFs.
Traders are pulling out of US stocks and junk bonds at the fastest rate in over a year, as Treasury yields rise, Federal Reserve hawks gain influence, and Middle East tensions escalate, leading to a decline in the S&P 500 and tech stocks.
Economist David Rosenberg criticized the market's reaction to the hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday as "completely insane," following a 422-point slide in the Dow. The Nasdaq scored its first record close in three weeks as equities rebounded, with all eyes on market action.
In Berkshire Hathaway's 2023 shareholder letter, Warren Buffett reiterates his lifelong strategy of investing heavily in U.S. equities, emphasizing the benefits of long-term investing and the growth of the American economy. He outlines the challenges of finding enduring investments as the company grows larger and emphasizes the importance of avoiding permanent loss of capital. Buffett also illustrates the value of investing in companies with strong fundamentals and offers insights into market volatility and the potential for market dislocations. His steadfast commitment to stock investments reflects a deep belief in the resilience and growth of the U.S. economy over decades, serving as a testament to the value of long-term equity investment as a cornerstone for wealth accumulation.
European morning trade remains subdued as traders await the US non-farm payrolls release, with the focus on the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts. The dollar is marginally lower, while Treasury yields are slightly higher. Tech shares rally, lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, contributing to a more positive risk mood.
The stock market is currently 98% above its long-term trend, indicating that stocks would need to decline significantly to align with their historical trend line, dating back to 1793. However, this doesn't necessarily imply an impending crash, as market trends are not inherently predictive and can be influenced by various factors.
Ned Davis Research's chief global macro strategist, Joseph Kalish, argues that the $6 trillion in money-market funds won't necessarily boost the stock market, citing historical data showing declines in money-market assets coinciding with Federal Reserve moves to ease monetary policy and bolster the economy. Despite a surge in money-market fund assets over the past year, Kalish points out that previous declines in such assets were followed by bear-market moves in equities, which is not the case currently with equities near record highs. While there are reasons to be bullish on equities and credit, Kalish believes the pile of cash in money-market funds is a weak factor in this scenario.