All articles tagged with #deterrence
A RUSI analysis warns that Russia’s improving air- and missile-defense systems could intercept British and French warheads within ten years, potentially undermining Europe’s independent deterrents as Moscow expands its shield and U.S. extended deterrence faces strain.
Xi Jinping’s purge of senior PLA officers has disrupted the high command and delayed near-term war planning, but it may foster a new generation of capable commanders and a firmer party-led military that could push toward a Taiwan showdown in the late 2020s to early 2030s; long-term risk depends on the civilian successor and how deterrence messaging influences Xi’s calculus more than battlefield might.
President Trump, frustrated by the limits of U.S. military leverage against Iran, seeks a punishing strike to push Tehran back to negotiation, but military planners warn that limited actions could trigger a wider, protracted conflict even as carrier groups and defenses are bolstered for deterrence.
Russia has pulled most of its Arctic troops to fight in Ukraine and suffered heavy losses, but NATO and Western analysts warn Moscow will rebuild and pose a stronger challenge in the High North. Allies are boosting Arctic defenses, training, surveillance, and mobility capabilities, with exercises like Cold Response signaling preparation for a future, more capable Russian threat.
The United States plans to broaden its missile posture in the Philippines by deploying more advanced launchers and unmanned systems as part of expanded security cooperation, while Manila and Washington outline specific defense plans including joint exercises and modernization efforts. China opposes the deployments as containment, but Philippine officials say the move is deterrence and a means to preserve freedom of navigation in the disputed South China Sea.
Two European defence leaders argue that post‑Cold War peace dividends must give way to a step change in investment and unity to deter Russia, citing Nato’s goal of 5% of GDP on defence by 2035, the need for a strong European defence industry, and initiatives like Britain–Germany cooperation and the EU Safe fund, while stressing that rearmament is a responsible act to protect people and peace and requires a whole‑of‑society approach.
In a power-driven landscape, Nordic strategists and U.S. allies such as Poland, Japan, and South Korea are weighing whether to develop their own nuclear weapons to ensure security, highlighting evolving risks and debates around nuclear proliferation and deterrence.
Russia warns of military and technical countermeasures if the United States deploys the planned Golden Dome missile-defense system in Greenland, arguing the move destabilizes the strategic balance as the New START treaty expires. The situation ties Arctic security to broader deterrence dynamics, while the U.S. touts a layered defense architecture with space-based sensors and interceptors; Denmark and NATO-aligned partners remain cautious and no deployment or formal agreements have been confirmed.
Ukraine says it struck hangars at Russia’s Kapustin Yar missile test range with FP-5 Flamingo missiles, damaging pre-launch facilities used for nuclear-capable missiles such as the Oreshnik and evacuating personnel; described as the first known case of a non-nuclear state targeting infrastructure used to prepare nuclear-capable missiles, signaling a shift in European deterrence.
Iran maintains one of the region’s largest ballistic-missile programs, with ranges up to about 2,000 km and a diverse arsenal (Sejil, Ghadr, Emad, Shahab-3, Khorramshahr), plus underground depots and ongoing hypersonic development. Analysts say Iran recovered from 2025 Israeli strikes and continues to view missiles as a deterrent and possible delivery system for nuclear weapons, while Israel and other powers monitor the threat.
Trump’s threats to seize Greenland have exposed rifts within NATO, undermining deterrence and raising questions about U.S. commitment; experts say the episode crossed a line, weakening the alliance even as European allies pledge deeper defense spending to safeguard collective security.
European allies and Canada pledge to boost defense to about 3.5% of GDP by 2035 (plus 1.5% for security-related projects) to deter adversaries, but NATO’s credibility and unity have been damaged by Donald Trump’s Greenland threats and disparaging remarks about allied troops, raising questions about U.S. commitment; Russia remains a persistent threat and potential U.S. troop withdrawals add to uncertainty about NATO’s future deterrence.
The 2026 National Defense Strategy pivots from expansive overseas deployments to homeland protection, designates NATO and regional partners as lead defenders in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, accelerates US defense production, and emphasizes deterrence and readiness while removing climate security from threat assessments.
The Bulwark argues Greenland’s strategic value lies in geography and climate, not acquisition; NATO has spent two decades refocusing on the Arctic to defend Europe by protecting Atlantic sea lanes, reinforcement routes, undersea infrastructure, and missile-warning capabilities, with Greenland’s location central to deterrence and alliance security. The Arctic is now a core NATO concern amid Russian and Chinese Arctic interests and climate-driven changes, and the Nordic-Baltic Eight emphasize that Greenland is a shared alliance responsibility, not a unilateral prize.
China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, involving army, navy, air force, and rocket units, as a show of force and warning against Taiwanese independence and external interference, following increased tensions and US arms sales to Taiwan.