Xi’s Purges Rewire the PLA, Raising Taiwan War Risk in the Medium Term
Xi Jinping’s purge of senior PLA officers has disrupted the high command and delayed near-term war planning, but it may foster a new generation of capable commanders and a firmer party-led military that could push toward a Taiwan showdown in the late 2020s to early 2030s; long-term risk depends on the civilian successor and how deterrence messaging influences Xi’s calculus more than battlefield might.