All articles tagged with #climate patterns
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become a major hurricane as it travels across the North Atlantic, with forecasts indicating a potential recurve away from North America and significant impacts such as high surf and coastal erosion. The storm is developing early in the season, with favorable conditions supporting its intensification, and models suggest it will stay away from the U.S. East Coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season, currently quiet with few hurricanes, is expected to become more active in mid-August due to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric oscillations, with potential for a significant hurricane to develop and possibly threaten North America in the coming weeks.
The latest summer weather outlook for the US predicts above-average temperatures for much of the country, with varying precipitation levels. The emergence of La Niña is expected to influence weather patterns, potentially leading to significant heat waves and one of the warmest summers in history. While the Upper Midwest may see close to average temperatures, most regions are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, except for vast areas of the West. The neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also expected to impact temperatures and precipitation across the country.
The "Super El Nino" climate pattern is waning, making way for the opposite La Nina, which is expected to bring cooler-than-average conditions and potentially increase Atlantic hurricane activity. The transition is predicted to occur as early as this summer, with La Nina conditions likely from June to November. This shift could lead to wetter weather in the northern US and southern Alaska, but dry conditions in Southern California and the Southwest, while also temporarily suppressing global temperatures.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center warns that ongoing El Niño conditions are likely to affect weather patterns across the U.S. through April, with above-average temperatures expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, and Northeast, while the Southeast is likely to see above-normal precipitation. El Niño events typically impact weather across the country, with the current conditions expected to persist through May before transitioning to neutral conditions later in the spring and summer months.
Meteorologist Judah Cohen uses the amount of October snow cover in Siberia to predict the severity of winter weather in the central and eastern United States. The expansion of snow cover in Siberia reflects more sunlight back into space, resulting in colder air that can potentially bring more snow to the US. This connection has been accurate about 75% of the time over the past two decades. Siberia's snow does not typically affect the winter forecast for the western US due to geographical factors. Cohen's winter weather forecast for the US will be posted on his blog in late November.
August is expected to have near-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall, influenced by the developing El Niño. While the first week may see below-normal temperatures, the second week could bring a return of 90-degree days. Last year, August had slightly hotter-than-average temperatures and less rainfall than the average of 3.25 inches. This year, there are signs of a wetter pattern, with a possibility of 3 to 5 inches of rain. Longer-term models suggest occasional hotter periods in the second half of August. July was slightly hotter than normal and had above-average rainfall, with a three-day heat wave and violent storms.
The El Nino climate pattern has returned, bringing the threat of extreme weather conditions worldwide, including tropical cyclones, increased rainfall, and flooding in parts of the Americas, rising temperatures globally, and droughts in Australia. The economic impact of this year's El Nino could lead to global losses of $3 trillion, with agricultural production and manufacturing being severely affected. The relationship between El Nino and global warming caused by human activity is expected to intensify extreme weather conditions.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño is on the way, with warmer sea temperatures promising new weather extremes. El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite. El Niño's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream south, making areas in the northern US and Canada dryer and warmer than usual. La Niña said farewell in March, and there's a 62% chance that El Niño will develop during the May–July period, and more than 80% chance of El Niño by the fall.