Russian forces are conducting limited cross-border attacks in northern Ukraine as part of a cognitive warfare campaign to influence Western perceptions and negotiations, but there is no evidence of preparations for a major new offensive, and Ukrainian forces continue to resist and make local advances. Russia has also seized Siversk after prolonged fighting, and Ukrainian-Russian negotiations are ongoing with no significant breakthroughs. Russian activities include illegal deportations and targeted drone strikes, while Ukrainian forces are countering and advancing in some areas.
Russian forces captured three settlements in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region amid ongoing battles, with Moscow expanding its territorial efforts despite heavy Ukrainian resistance and international sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector. The conflict continues to escalate, with significant fighting in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia.
Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is losing momentum with slower territorial gains and high casualties, over 281,000 since 2025, highlighting a costly and grinding war of attrition that strains Moscow's resources and manpower.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has captured nearly 5,000 square km of Ukrainian territory in 2025, claiming strategic initiative and advances in multiple regions, despite Ukrainian resistance and recent gains in some areas. Russia's military efforts focus on consolidating control and advancing in key regions, while Ukraine reports territorial gains and setbacks for Russian forces.
In September 2025, Russia's territorial advances in Ukraine slowed significantly, capturing only 259 square kilometers, the smallest gain since May, and now occupying about 19.04% of Ukraine, with ongoing intense fighting near Novopavlivka and Kupiansk, while Ukrainian forces have recaptured several villages and pushed back Russian advances near Pokrovsk.
Russian war observers criticize the Russian military for overstating territorial gains in Ukraine, while Russia faces accusations of propaganda, GPS jamming, and involvement in political assassinations. European leaders plan a virtual meeting to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine amid ongoing conflict and Russian hostility, including attacks on civilians and infrastructure, and Ukraine's adaptation to war, such as underground schooling for children.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is inflating its territorial gains in Ukraine and conducting large missile and drone strikes, while suffering significant casualties. The Kremlin appears to be manipulating information to portray an inevitable victory, despite evidence of slow progress and high losses. Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian infrastructure, and internal Russian politics suggest possible shifts in leadership and strategy. The conflict remains intense with ongoing military and informational battles.
Ukraine confirmed for the first time that Russian forces have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region, with ongoing fighting as Russia consolidates its positions and gains ground in eastern and southern Ukraine amid stalled peace negotiations.
The situation in east Ukraine, particularly around the city of Chasiv Yar, has significantly deteriorated, with constant enemy fire and active attacks on Ukrainian positions in multiple sectors. As Western military aid to Ukraine slows, Russia has made territorial gains in the area, posing a serious threat to the region.
Russian forces are advancing on Ukraine's eastern front, with the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region being targeted, while Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian military planes in a drone attack. Both sides are reporting shelling and injuries in frontline towns and villages, with Ukraine stepping up aerial attacks on Russian territory. The conflict has escalated with missile strikes and drone attacks on both sides, leading to casualties and destruction in the region.
Russian forces have seized three more villages in Ukraine, including Stepove, raising concerns about their growing momentum in the conflict. Western officials warn of ammunition shortages faced by Ukraine's military, with House Republicans blocking $60 billion in U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. The loss of Avdiivka is attributed to the shortage in ammunition, and U.S. officials emphasize the seriousness of the situation, urging Congress to approve the aid package.
Ukrainian military officials provide an unvarnished assessment of the battlefield, describing intense fighting in the northeast and increased pressure on Ukrainian forces in the southeast, with Russian forces amassing and conducting offensive operations. The enemy is focusing on artillery attacks and utilizing drones, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian forces and aiming to recapture lost territory.
Russia's renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine has resulted in heavy casualties, with over 13,000 soldiers killed or wounded and more than 220 combat vehicles lost, according to US intelligence. Despite these losses, Russia has made no strategic gains. The UK estimates that since the war began in February 2022, Russian forces have suffered between 220,000 and 280,000 wounded personnel and around 70,000 killed. The US, the largest provider of security assistance to Ukraine, is urging Congress to approve supplemental funding to continue supporting Ukraine militarily. Without this support, Ukraine could face devastating consequences.
The counter-offensive in the Ukraine war appears to be drawing to a close, with few territorial gains or losses on either side. Satellite data shows a slowdown in war-related activity since mid-October, suggesting a slowdown in the fighting. While Ukraine made significant gains during its counter-offensive last year, this year's offensive has resulted in almost no lasting gains. The current fighting is concentrated in the south, near Robotyne and Tokmak, as well as in Avdiivka and the east of Kherson city. Despite the challenges, Ukraine has shown resilience with support from the West, and the war is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
Ukrainian troops claim to have regained more territory on the eastern and southern fronts in their military counteroffensive against Russian forces. The claims, which have not been independently verified, come as Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visits Kyiv and expresses support for Ukraine's path towards EU membership. Ukraine's military intelligence agency also claims to have retaken offshore drilling platforms near Crimea that were occupied by Russia since 2015.
