Winter drag slows Russian advances as ISW flags tempered momentum in Ukraine
ISW’s January 14, 2026 assessment says Russian advances slowed late 2025 into January, likely due to harsher winter conditions and pressure to hit year-end goals. Russian gains declined after peaking in early December, with about 276 km2 gained Dec 1–17, then ~89 km2 (Dec 17–31) and ~74 km2 (Dec 31–Jan 13). While poor weather briefly aided some advances, colder temperatures are constraining the infantry-heavy offensive template. Moscow continues to push broader territorial aims beyond the current peace plans (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa obasts) and sustains a cognitive warfare campaign with limited cross-border attacks in northern Ukraine, not yet signaling a major northern offensive. Ukraine has made political-military moves (e.g., Fedorov as defense minister) while Western diplomacy stalls; Russia cites Lavrov’s remarks and the Novorossiya framing to press for greater concessions. A Polish cyberattack on its energy grid is noted as part of broader strategic pressure. Frontlines are not reported as collapsing, and ISW notes no confirmed major Russian advances on January 14.
