Iran's proxy wars in the Middle East could backfire and harm its own political interests, as evidenced by recent missile and drone attacks in Iraq's Kurdish region, Pakistan, and Syria. While Tehran is careful to continue waging proxy wars, the escalating tensions it has created may lead to a situation that could inflict a painful blow on its broader political interests in the region.
The Red Sea has become a battleground for African-Arab power politics, with Arab Gulf states seeking to minimize threats and secure farmlands in the Horn of Africa, leading to proxy wars and state fragmentation. The region faces existential crises, with the African Union compromised and the United Nations retreating from peacemaking. The recent deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, backed by the UAE, has sparked tensions with Somalia. Global powers, including the US, China, and Turkey, are vying for influence in the Red Sea Arena, while the AU and UN have failed to address the escalating conflicts and power struggles.
The U.S. has recently targeted Iran's proxy groups in the Middle East, including a deadly drone strike against a militia in Baghdad and threats against Houthi rebels in Yemen. These actions are in response to increased attacks by these proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, against U.S. and Israeli interests. Iran's proxies have been a tool for Tehran to exert influence and challenge U.S. presence in the region without direct involvement. Despite these tensions, the U.S. and Israel have managed to maintain or expand their influence in the Middle East, while Iran's proxies have not achieved decisive gains.
While Iran may not want a direct war with Israel, experts warn that it could be dragged into one as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues. Iran has varying levels of influence over the militias it backs in the region, and if these groups independently intervene, it could escalate the situation. The US has warned Iran against further involvement and airstrikes have targeted Iranian-backed militias in Syria. While Iran is preparing its population for war, there are concerns about the stability of the situation and the potential for a wider conflict that could involve the US.
