
Russia’s 2025 strike surge drives record civilian toll in Ukraine, ISW finds
A Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, drawing on Bloomberg and UN HRMMU data, says 2025 saw a record civilian toll in Ukraine from Russian strikes: roughly 2,400–2,512 killed and about 12,000–12,142 injured, up about 30% from 2024, with 97% of casualties in Ukrainian-controlled areas. Russia expanded its strike packages and drone campaigns (hundreds of missiles per package at times, thousands of drones), aided by partners, and focused heavily on energy infrastructure. Ukraine continued long-range strikes against Russian defense-industrial assets. Western sanctions are likely to constrain Russia’s aircraft production, while Russia’s leadership changes were noted (a senior commander reportedly dismissed). The takeaway is a intensified, more destructive campaign in 2025 that increased civilian harm while maintaining pressure across multiple fronts.











