All articles tagged with #economicdata
Investors face a risky week with a busy earnings season, key economic data releases, a crucial trade deadline, and central bank meetings, amid concerns that high valuations and recent gains may lead to volatility or a market correction.
U.S. stocks slipped on Thursday as the market pulled back from record highs, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite all declining. Technology stocks, which had surged the previous day, were mostly lower, with notable declines in Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon. Adobe shares fell sharply due to a weak revenue outlook, while Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose on restructuring news. Economic data showed higher-than-expected wholesale inflation and disappointing jobless claims, but did not alter expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Meanwhile, Donald Trump made a historic visit to the NYSE, promoting tax cuts and investment in AI.
The 10-year Treasury yield decreased slightly as investors evaluated mixed economic data and the U.S. economic outlook. While PMI surveys showed improvement, consumer sentiment fell short of expectations. Initial jobless claims were lower than anticipated, indicating a stable labor market, but other data, like rising continuing claims and a slowing Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, suggested economic weakness. Investors also considered Federal Reserve officials' comments on potential interest rate cuts, with differing views on the pace of future reductions.
US stock indexes fell as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments, which reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. Powell emphasized the strength of the US economy, leading to a drop in the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut from 80% to less than 60%. Bond yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7 basis points. Economic data, including a rise in retail sales, also influenced market expectations. Major indexes were down, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points to 4.38% following a consumer price index report that met expectations, indicating a 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annual inflation increase. Investors are also anticipating upcoming producer price index data and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for insights into future monetary policy. Despite recent market sensitivity due to the election and rate cuts, the focus remains on economic indicators like retail sales and industrial production.
Stock futures remained nearly flat following a significant market rally after Donald Trump's presidential election victory, as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reached new highs, while expectations for future rate cuts have adjusted, with a likely quarter-point cut anticipated in November. Market participants are also watching economic data and earnings reports from companies like Moderna and Warner Bros. Discovery.
US stocks showed little change as major indices exhibited a subdued trend, with the S&P 500 slipping by 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 inching up by 0.2%. Small-cap stocks surged, while Treasury yields trended upward and the dollar held steady. Crude oil climbed, and in the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin surpassed $53,000. Tesla and other EV stocks rallied, while Alphabet fell due to concerns about its Gemini AI tool. Several companies reacted to earnings, with Palo Alto Networks marking the strongest performance, and R1 RCM rallying as majority shareholders considered taking it private.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its job growth figures, revealing that 439,000 fewer jobs were created through November 2023 than initially reported. This significant overstatement has implications for market movements, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy decisions. The government sector showed increased hiring, contributing to the inflated numbers. The issue of overstated job growth is not new, with previous revisions and predictions indicating similar discrepancies. The labor force participation rate remains low, and many Americans are working multiple jobs to cope with the high cost of living and inflation.
Upcoming CPI data from the US and China are key focal points for the week, with analysts watching for signs of inflation trends that could influence central bank policies. The US is expected to see a slight rise in CPI, potentially challenging the market's dovish view on the Fed's rate trajectory. China's inflation figures are anticipated to remain low, avoiding a deflationary spiral. Corporate earnings reports in the US will also be in the spotlight, with expectations of modest growth amid concerns over economic slowdown. In Europe, Swiss and Norwegian CPI data will provide insights into inflationary pressures, while the UK's GDP figures could signal the severity of a potential technical recession.
The 'everything rally' of 2023 is showing signs of reversal in the early days of 2024, with U.S. stocks ending a nine-week winning streak and experiencing their worst start since 2016. Treasury yields have risen sharply, while the U.S. dollar index has had its best first week of the year since 2015. Gold prices have dropped after hitting record highs in December, and oil prices have seen a spike amid Middle East tensions. Investors are reevaluating their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and upcoming economic data, including the core CPI report, could further influence market trends.
The stock market ended its nine-week winning streak, marking the worst start to a year since 2016 for the Dow and S&P 500, as investors reacted to strong labor market data and concerns over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Despite a positive jobs report showing 216,000 new jobs in December, beating expectations, and an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.7%, stocks fell due to fears that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts. Additionally, Apple shares dropped after analyst downgrades, and AMC shares hit an all-time low. Upcoming economic data and corporate earnings reports are expected to further influence market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy.
Stocks fluctuated after a strong December jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 216,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. This robust labor data may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, potentially delaying anticipated rate cuts. Meanwhile, service activity slowed, and bond yields rose. In other news, AMC shares hit a new low, Maersk rerouted ships due to Red Sea tensions, and OpenAI is negotiating content licensing with publishers.
Stocks showed mixed reactions following the release of a strong December jobs report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly down, the S&P 500 marginally up, and the Nasdaq Composite seeing a small gain. The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the robust labor market data has led to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with investor bets on a March rate cut now split. This comes after a period of optimism about the Fed potentially easing monetary policy. Bond yields rose, and tech stocks like Apple faced pressure after a supplier forecasted a revenue drop.
The U.S. dollar initially rose after a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report, but gains were tempered by downward revisions of previous months' data and a declining participation rate. Despite a solid unemployment rate of 3.7%, the market reassessed the strength of the jobs data, leading to a pullback in the dollar's value against other major currencies. The USDJPY retreated from near 146.00 levels, while the EURUSD and GBPUSD recovered from their post-report lows, with the EURUSD breaking above a key retracement level.
U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant increase, with the 10- and 30-year rates experiencing their largest weekly rise since October after a strong U.S. jobs report indicated the addition of 216,000 new jobs in December, surpassing expectations. This robust employment data, coupled with a slight dip in service sector growth according to the ISM survey, has influenced market expectations, with traders now pricing in a slower timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite this, the possibility of rate reductions remains on the horizon, with the first cut anticipated by some analysts as early as May.