Beijing's 2026 Dilemma: Coercion Over War Remains Xi's Default
Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan in 2026, instead relying on coercive tools—diplomatic isolation, information operations, economic pressure and continued military posturing—to wear down Taiwan while preserving attack options. Xi’s calculus hinges on military readiness and leadership reliability, likely US and regional responses, Taiwan’s defenses and political dynamics, Chinese domestic economic challenges, and broader global context. Despite notable military gains and internal purges, the risk of escalation remains a key factor, making war less likely this year but not impossible if conditions shift.
