Geneva Talks Preview: Russia Holds Firm on War Aims While Expanding Drone Capabilities
ISW assesses Russia is unlikely to abandon its original war demands in the Feb 17–18 Geneva talks, signaling a push on territorial issues and potentially masking concessions with a short-term energy-strikes moratorium while stockpiling weapons. Moscow is expanding drone capabilities through the BARS-Sarmat center and GRU-linked units, and Western reporting suggests sabotage networks in Europe may be leveraged by Russian intelligence. In Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have struck energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Bryansk, while Russian operations continue across northern Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts and Ukraine plans to raise energy ceasefire questions at the talks.