Tag

Prediction Market

All articles tagged with #prediction market

investing3 days ago•7 min saved

Prediction Markets Signal 2026 S&P 500 Correction Risk, Backed by Historical Midterm Trends

Kalshi contracts price in a ~58% chance of a 2026 S&P 500 correction (to 6,200 or lower), with another bet near 39% for a roughly 15% drop to 5,900. History suggests bear markets are plausible in 2026 (about 50% odds) and midterm years tend to see notable pullbacks before a post‑election rebound, while earnings are expected to rise about 15% but valuations remain elevated (about 21.5x forward). The takeaway: be cautious, only buy what you’re comfortable holding through drawdowns, and consider keeping a larger cash cushion.

via The Motley Fool|

#bear-market #investing #midterm-elections

world1 month ago•1 min saved

High-Stakes Bets and Insider Trading Rumors Surround Maduro's Ouster

A new anonymous user on Polymarket made large bets predicting the US would seize Venezuela's Maduro, earning over US$400,000 in profits, sparking speculation of insider information and concerns about potential market manipulation.

via South China Morning Post|

#insider-trading #maduro #prediction-market

world1 month ago•1 min saved

Trader Profits Spark Insider Trading Concerns Over Maduro's Capture

An account on Polymarket made a significant profit by betting on Maduro's capture just before a US military attack on Venezuela, raising suspicions of insider trading and inside information, with some experts noting that such trading is often encouraged on prediction markets.

via The Verge|

#insider-trading #maduro #polymarket

sports2 months ago•2 min saved

NCAA Blocks Kalshi's Portal Trading Proposal

Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has notified regulators of plans to list markets on whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal, drawing criticism from the NCAA due to concerns over athlete pressure and integrity. While Kalshi states it has no immediate plans to offer such trading, the move highlights ongoing tensions between emerging prediction markets and sports regulatory bodies.

via ESPN|

#gambling #kalshi #ncaa

business2 months ago•2 min saved

Fanatics Debuts Prediction Market Across 24 States

Fanatics is launching its own prediction market platform, Fanatics Markets, in 24 US states, allowing users to trade on events across sports, finance, and culture, with plans to expand into crypto, stocks, and music, amid a growing trend of prediction markets following the legalization of online sports betting.

via CNBC|

#business #fanatics #online-gambling

business2 months ago•3 min saved

Luana Lopes Lara: From Ballerina to Billionaire in the Prediction Market

Luana Lopes Lara, a former ballerina and MIT graduate, has become the world's youngest self-made woman billionaire after her prediction market platform, Kalshi, reached an $11 billion valuation, driven by rapid growth and successful regulatory milestones.

via Hindustan Times|

#business #kalshi #luana-lopes-lara

business2 months ago•6 min saved

Polymarket: The Prediction Market Revolution and Its Young Billionaire CEO

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market led by CEO Shayne Coplan, claims to be the most accurate source for predicting real-world events, with a history of outperforming experts in forecasts such as the 2024 US presidential election. The platform allows users to bet on outcomes across various categories, providing valuable insights and attracting significant investment, including a recent $2 billion from the NYSE owner. Despite regulatory challenges and legal issues, Polymarket aims to expand its user base globally and become a major tool for forecasting future events.

via CBS News|

#business #cryptocurrency #forecasting

technology3 months ago•2 min saved

Google Finance Enhances Trading with Gemini AI and Prediction Market Data

Google Finance is enhancing its platform with a Deep Search feature powered by Gemini AI, allowing for more detailed and complex queries, and adding support for prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with rollout in the US and India.

via The Verge|

#ai-chatbot #deep-search #gemini-ai

business4 months ago•2 min saved

NYSE Parent to Invest $2 Billion in Polymarket Amid Growing Prediction Market Trend

Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the NYSE, plans to invest $2 billion in prediction market platform Polymarket, valuing it between $8 billion and $10 billion, leading to declines in stocks of competitors DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. The move signifies growing institutional interest in crypto-based prediction markets, despite regulatory challenges in the U.S.

via Investor's Business Daily|

#business #investment #nyse

corporate4 months ago•4 min saved

NYSE Owner Makes $2 Billion Investment in Polymarket, Boosting Prediction Markets

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, a prediction market platform, valuing it at approximately $8 billion pre-investment. ICE will also distribute Polymarket’s data globally to institutional investors and collaborate on future tokenization initiatives, aiming to integrate prediction markets into mainstream finance.

via Intercontinental Exchange|

#corporate #financial-technology #ice

business6 months ago•1 min saved

Trump explores multiple candidates for Federal Reserve chair, including Zervos and Rieder

Odds of David Zervos becoming the next Fed chair have increased on prediction market Kalshi amid reports that Trump is considering him among 11 candidates, with market probabilities rising to 15-17%, reflecting ongoing speculation about Trump's choice for the Fed leadership.

via CNBC|

#business #david-zervos #fed-chair

world6 months ago•3 min saved

Sex Toy Tosses Disrupt WNBA Games and Draw Criticism

Multiple incidents of sex toys being thrown onto WNBA courts have been linked to betting on prediction markets like Polymarket, where users wager on whether such disruptions will occur, with some making significant profits. The events have drawn legal and safety concerns, and the market is now launching daily prediction options related to these disruptions.

via Sportico.com|

#disruption #polymarket #prediction-market

business1 year ago•2 min saved

FBI Raids Polymarket CEO's Home, Seizes Electronics

Federal agents raided the home of Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, seizing electronic devices amid an unclear investigation. The raid follows Polymarket's prediction of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory. Founded in 2020, Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform with over $3 billion in trading volume, backed by investors like Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. A spokesperson suggested the raid was politically motivated, but neither Polymarket nor the FBI have commented.

via Forbes|

#blockchain #business #fbi

finance2 years ago•1 min saved

CFTC Blocks Kalshi's Proposal for Betting on U.S. Congress Control

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has rejected a proposal by prediction market Kalshi to allow users to bet on which party will control the chambers of Congress. The regulator deemed the contracts to involve unlawful gaming and activity, contrary to the public interest. Kalshi's CEO expressed disagreement with the decision but remains optimistic about the company's vision being recognized in the future. Consumer advocacy organization Better Markets supported the CFTC's decision, citing risks to election integrity and alleged violations of the Commodities Exchange Act in Kalshi's proposal.

via CoinDesk|

#cftc #congress #finance