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Prediction Markets Enter a High-Stakes Regulatory War
regulation7 days ago

Prediction Markets Enter a High-Stakes Regulatory War

The U.S. regulatory fight over prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying, with advocates arguing the platforms offer fair, investor-driven markets and regulators pressing for state-agnostic gambling laws; Kalshi operates nationwide while Polymarket, banned in 2022, has returned in a limited form. Dozens of lawsuits target Kalshi, the CFTC asserts exclusive authority, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are weighing actions—signaling a long, contentious battle rather than a quick resolution.

via WIRED|
#cftc#kalshi#polymarket
CFTC presses federal reach over prediction markets amid state challenges
business10 days ago

CFTC presses federal reach over prediction markets amid state challenges

The CFTC, led by Chair Michael Selig, filed an amicus brief in federal court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction to enforce and regulate prediction markets, arguing these event contracts are swaps under CFTC rules. With nearly 50 active cases against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the agency aims to curb state prohibitions and hints at new rules, while preparing to defend its authority in court, including a related Ninth Circuit case involving Crypto.com and the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

via CNBC|
#business#cftc#kalshi
US Regulators Clash with Kalshi and Polymarket Over Booming Prediction Markets
business10 days ago

US Regulators Clash with Kalshi and Polymarket Over Booming Prediction Markets

Regulators and lawmakers across the US are escalating legal battles against prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing they operate like unregulated gambling and should face state licensing; the CFTC is defending its exclusive federal jurisdiction as lawsuits, injunctions, and new bills mount. The market has seen huge volumes (e.g., over $1B on Kalshi during the Super Bowl), spurring traditional sportsbooks to launch competing platforms. Courts are weighing whether these event-derivative contracts fall under federal commodities law or state gaming rules, with potential Supreme Court involvement. The debate centers on consumer protections, insider trading risk, and the future of a nationwide regulatory framework rather than patchwork state laws.

via The Guardian|
#business#cftc#kalshi
Democrats Urge CFTC to Stay Out of Prediction Market Litigation
regulation13 days ago

Democrats Urge CFTC to Stay Out of Prediction Market Litigation

A group of 23 Democratic senators led by Adam Schiff urged the CFTC to refrain from weighing in on ongoing state and federal lawsuits over the legality of Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing the platforms lack protections and touch on prohibited events. The letter pushes the agency to bar certain contracts, while the CFTC maintains exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives, highlighting a broader regulatory clash as lawsuits unfold.

via WIRED|
#cftc#kalshi#polymarket
Polymarket's Free-Grocery Pop-Up Draws Crowds in NYC
business14 days ago

Polymarket's Free-Grocery Pop-Up Draws Crowds in NYC

Polymarket staged a “free grocery store” pop-up in New York’s West Village that drew hundreds on opening day, only to be delayed by late deliveries; inside, shelves and supplies looked unusually polished, and reporters documented the scene as a marketing stunt tied to the crypto platform. The event is framed by Polymarket as a philanthropic‑first effort, including a pledge to donate $1 million to the Food Bank for NYC, while sparking questions about brand-washing and gambling optics.

via Curbed|
#business#free-grocery-store#marketing
Polymarket Bets on Earnings: AMZN, RDDT, RBLX Seen Beating Estimates
market-news22 days ago

Polymarket Bets on Earnings: AMZN, RDDT, RBLX Seen Beating Estimates

Polymarket traders are pricing in earnings outcomes for Amazon (AMZN), Reddit (RDDT), and Roblox (RBLX) as they report after the Feb 5 close. AMZN is expected to post GAAP EPS of $1.95, Reddit $0.93, and Roblox a GAAP EPS loss of $0.47. Polymarket assigns roughly a 94% chance AMZN beats estimates, 93% for Reddit, and 68% for Roblox, but cautions that odds reflect trader sentiment and are not guarantees, so results may differ.

via TipRanks|
#amzn#earnings#market-news
Prediction markets accused of amplifying fake news on social platforms
business27 days ago

Prediction markets accused of amplifying fake news on social platforms

Axios reports that Kalshi and Polymarket, leading prediction markets, have become vectors for viral misinformation by posting unverified or misleading content on social media, often with lax journalistic norms, raising concerns about their role in shaping public understanding of crises while regulators push for legitimacy and caution about engagement-driven claims.

via Axios|
#business#kalshi#misinformation
Bettors Cash In By Betting Against Elon Musk's Promises
business1 month ago

Bettors Cash In By Betting Against Elon Musk's Promises

Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket are making money by wagering that Elon Musk will miss his promises (like a California robotaxi and a new political party). Traders report sizable gains: one user has more than $36,000 in resolved Musk/Tesla bets and $1.4 million lifetime on Polymarket, while another touts about $490,000 across two Polymarket accounts. The surge follows a 2024 ruling that允许 event contracts, with Musk’s own involvement fueling activity; markets sometimes hinge on nuanced definitions of events (e.g., what counts as unsupervised), but overall the prediction-market trend around Musk remains strong.

via NBC News|
#business#elon-musk#kalshi
Winter storm bets heat up on Kalshi and Polymarket
business1 month ago

Winter storm bets heat up on Kalshi and Polymarket

As a major winter storm nears, traders are placing bets on snowfall totals via Kalshi and Polymarket, with about $170,000 wagered on NYC snow inches on Kalshi and roughly $80,000 on Polymarket, plus bets for Washington, DC. The piece notes that weather derivatives are used by utilities and institutions to hedge risk and diversify, while prediction markets offer retail access to weather outcomes, signaling a growing role for individuals in weather-risk markets.

via Axios|
#business#kalshi#polymarket
Prediction Markets: A Full-Time Bet on the News
business1 month ago

Prediction Markets: A Full-Time Bet on the News

Traders are turning prediction markets into full-time careers, using data-driven bets on political outcomes. Joel Holsinger, a 26-year-old ex-C.P.A., quit his job to trade on Kalshi and Polymarket, aiming to hit six figures after a Thanksgiving Eve bet on whether Trump would pardon a turkey. He bought 500 “no” shares on “stuffing” at 86 cents and 500 on “cheaper” at 70 cents, choosing bets by analyzing word frequencies in past speeches. The piece portrays a growing class of professional traders who exploit market liquidity and predictive data, highlighting both lucrative potential and the risks involved.

via The New York Times|
#business#joel-holsinger#kalshi