Prediction Markets: A Full-Time Bet on the News
Traders are turning prediction markets into full-time careers, using data-driven bets on political outcomes. Joel Holsinger, a 26-year-old ex-C.P.A., quit his job to trade on Kalshi and Polymarket, aiming to hit six figures after a Thanksgiving Eve bet on whether Trump would pardon a turkey. He bought 500 “no” shares on “stuffing” at 86 cents and 500 on “cheaper” at 70 cents, choosing bets by analyzing word frequencies in past speeches. The piece portrays a growing class of professional traders who exploit market liquidity and predictive data, highlighting both lucrative potential and the risks involved.