US One-China Policy Erodes as Washington Bets on Taiwan Deterrence
The article argues that the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy and related defense documents mark a deliberate drift away from the traditional US “one China policy,” dropping the explicit language and signaling a stronger focus on Taiwan’s strategic status and denial defenses along the First Island Chain. Tracing the policy’s arc from the 1970s Three Communiqués through the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, the piece notes that Washington has long linked the “one China” framework to a peaceful resolution—something Beijing has never fully guaranteed. The current rhetoric, however, treats Taiwan as a separate, vital partner, implicitly moving toward a de facto “one China, one Taiwan” stance and eroding Washington’s neutrality on long-term status. The article warns this drift could undermine credibility, provoke Beijing, and heighten the risk of miscalculation, arguing the United States must clearly articulate and credibly define its “one China policy” to avert conflict.
