All articles tagged with #middle east tension
Global markets experienced volatility as tensions in the Middle East escalated, leading to rising oil prices and safe-haven asset flows, while the Bank of Japan signaled a slowdown in bond tapering, influencing currency and bond markets ahead of key central bank meetings and geopolitical developments.
Oil prices declined after earlier gains as markets assessed US military movements in the Middle East amid ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, with tensions raising concerns over potential supply disruptions, though analysts suggest the recent price surge may have been overdone pending further clarity.
The weekend's safety trades prompted by fears of Iran's retaliatory strike on Israel have partially reversed as markets remain jittery amid unfolding events. U.S. crude oil prices fell from their pre-weekend highs, and stock markets in Asia were mixed, with U.S. stock futures bouncing back on Monday. The central fear is that an escalating regional conflict could lead to another energy shock and further roil U.S. markets already concerned about inflation and possible Federal Reserve hesitation in cutting interest rates. Gold prices spiked but have largely unwound, and U.S. Treasuries received a safety bid despite inflation concerns. The uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran standoff could persist for several weeks, impacting sector rotation and currency movements.
Stocks suffered their sharpest weekly decline of 2024, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5 percent on Friday and ending the week with a 1.6 percent drop, its worst weekly decline of the year. Rising tension in the Middle East and lingering inflation concerns prompted caution among investors, leading to a retreat. The rally in stocks earlier this year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, has been scaled back following an unexpectedly stubborn increase in consumer prices. Investors also sought protection amid warnings of a potential attack on Israel by Iran, driving demand for haven assets and overshadowing better-than-expected results from major banks.
As markets shift focus to the first quarter U.S. corporate earnings season, attention is drawn to the alarming decline in China's trade and rising tension in the Middle East. U.S. banks are expected to report slightly lower quarterly profits, with technology-related companies leading S&P 500 profit growth. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory and global central bank rate cuts are being closely monitored, while the European Central Bank's indication of a potential rate cut in June has impacted the dollar and European stocks. Additionally, Chinese trade data showed a sharp contraction in exports and imports, contributing to market uncertainty.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has called for the international community to impose a solution to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, citing the inability of the parties to reach an agreement. The conflict has escalated with the killing of a Hamas leader in Lebanon, potentially drawing Lebanon deeper into the war. Borrell warned of the broader Middle East region being inflamed and is planning a visit to the region to explore resolutions, including a proposal for an EU mission in the Red Sea amidst disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthis targeting vessels in solidarity with Palestinians.
Oil prices remained steady as uncertainty loomed over the effectiveness of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ group, tensions escalated in the Middle East, and weak US economic data emerged. Brent crude futures edged up slightly, supported by comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister suggesting that production cuts could extend beyond the first quarter of 2024 if necessary. However, doubts about the impact of the OPEC+ cuts and a stronger US dollar weighed on oil prices. Concerns over supply were heightened by the resumption of fighting in the Israel-Hamas war and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Additionally, US factory orders falling more than expected raised concerns about the health of US demand.
Asian stocks slipped as risk aversion increased due to concerns over Middle East conflict, while the bond sell-off intensified, pushing Treasury yields to fresh 16-year highs ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors sought safer assets, keeping gold prices near two-month peaks and the dollar firm. The gloomy mood is expected to continue in Europe, with stock markets in the region set for a lower open. Geopolitical risks, including a widening U.S. chip export ban and concerns over China's property sector, also weighed on investor sentiment.