The ongoing government shutdown has prevented the release of the official October jobs report, but alternative data suggests the U.S. labor market is experiencing a slowdown with reduced hiring and increased layoffs, though not indicating a recession. Small businesses are particularly cautious, and while some indicators show signs of weakness, overall employment remains relatively stable, influencing Federal Reserve considerations on interest rate policies.
During the ongoing government shutdown, official economic data is delayed or unavailable, prompting investors and analysts to rely on a variety of alternative and quirky indicators—such as private payroll data, satellite imagery, and even lipstick sales—to gauge economic health, though these methods have limitations and lack the reliability of official statistics.
During the government shutdown, businesses and policymakers turned to alternative private sector data sources like restaurant reservations, hotel occupancy, and job listings to gauge the economy, highlighting the importance of the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which remains the gold standard for economic measurement despite the availability of various unconventional indicators.
Amid doubts about the reliability of official U.S. economic data, the article highlights 13 warning signs of economic trouble, including labor market shifts, consumer spending declines, business closures, and alternative indicators like private payroll data and social metrics, emphasizing the importance of observing real-world signals beyond official statistics.
Proptech startup Rent Butter aims to provide landlords with a more equitable way to screen potential tenants by offering an alternative to credit scores. The screening tool connects to an applicant's bank account to assess their financial stability based on alternative data such as rent payment history, credit behavior, and income/expense information. By providing more comprehensive insights, including credit score trends, the tool helps landlords make informed decisions and reduce risk, fraud, and turnover. Rent Butter recently raised $3 million in funding and currently serves properties with 120,000 residential units.
