Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is losing momentum with slower territorial gains and high casualties, over 281,000 since 2025, highlighting a costly and grinding war of attrition that strains Moscow's resources and manpower.
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to a strategy of military victory in Ukraine through attrition, despite Russian military shortcomings, and continues targeting Ukraine's infrastructure while testing NATO's defenses; Ukraine is counterattacking and expanding its weapons export program, amid ongoing large-scale Russian strikes and alleged war crimes.
Russia's war in Ukraine is expected to continue as a drawn-out war of attrition in 2024, with neither side making major territorial gains. The Russian army lacks the resources for a decisive breakthrough, while Ukrainian forces, outgunned and seeking long-term military support, face challenges. Avdiivka is a focal point of Russia's winter offensive, with significant advances threatening Ukrainian defenders. In other key frontline areas, Russian progress varies, with slow advancements in some regions. The war is characterized by a lack of substantial territorial shifts, and Ukraine's ability to plan an offensive hinges on securing military aid. Delays in Western aid may lead to significant Ukrainian air defense missile shortages, potentially allowing Russia to increase its limited deployment of aviation.
Meduza provides an updated combat map documenting the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the latest developments in Bakhmut and southern Ukraine. The Russian command has shifted its strategy from passive defense to synchronized attacks in different directions, indicating a new phase of the war of attrition. Both sides aim to exhaust each other's reserves before launching their own offensives. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their attempts to break through Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine, while also launching a new offensive in Bakhmut. Russian forces are countering with local attacks along the front lines. The situation remains fluid and the combat map reflects data that is at least 48 hours old.
Russia's winter offensive in Ukraine has failed to deliver gains, with both armies deadlocked and troops stretched across the region. The battle for Bakhmut has become the longest and bloodiest in Ukraine, with little strategic value. The Russian army lacks trained men and has artillery ammunition supply problems. The war has decimated forces and drained resources on both sides for more than a year. Ukraine has access to Western intelligence, training, and weapons, prolonging the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears committed for the long haul, but no one understands how he could secure a victory.