Donald Trump's performance in the first three primary contests has not matched expectations, leading to speculation about a possible polling error. While his underperformance is not significant in the context of primary polls, it has raised questions about the motivation of anti-Trump voters and the impact of undecided voters. Three theories are being considered, with one suggesting that undecided voters may have ultimately backed his opponents, particularly in South Carolina.
Several GOP consultants predict that Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves will likely face a gubernatorial runoff against his Democratic challenger Brandon Presley, as recent internal polls show Reeves polling below 50% and a significant number of voters remaining undecided or supporting independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray. While some consultants believe that Reeves may not win on the first ballot, others speculate that undecided voters will ultimately push him over the 50% mark. The possibility of a runoff has generated buzz among attendees at a political event, with Reeves hinting at the challenge of reaching 50% in his speech. Presley's absence at the event was seized upon by Reeves, who accused him of meeting with wealthy campaign donors.
A body language expert analyzed the GOP primary debate, focusing on the candidates' nonverbal cues. Ron DeSantis appeared angry and lacked modulation in his voice, while Vivek Ramaswamy seemed comfortable and used broad gestures. Chris Christie used his eyes to convey intensity, and Mike Pence's body language became more vigorous as he engaged others directly. Tim Scott used hand gestures and a cadence reminiscent of a church pastor to connect with the audience. Nikki Haley tensed her jaw and delivered a strong vocal barrage. Doug Burgum used a visual prop, and Asa Hutchinson refused to raise his hand in support of Trump. DeSantis finally smiled at the end.
The first independent public poll in the race to be Philadelphia's 100th mayor shows a statistical tie among the Democratic candidates, with three women in the lead. Rebecca Rhynhart, Cherelle Parker, and Helen Gym are the top three candidates, respectively, with undecided voters leading the pack. The poll had a "credibility interval" of 3.8%, which wipes away the difference between the leaders. With so many voters still undecided, the outcome on May 16 is far from clear.