U.S. Leading Indicators Signal Recession Looming
The U.S. Leading Economic Index, which tracks business cycles, fell for the 15th consecutive month in June, indicating a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims. This marks the longest streak of decreases since the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board stated that economic activity is likely to continue decelerating in the coming months, and they forecast a recession from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. Factors such as elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, reduced government spending, and limited credit availability are expected to further dampen economic growth.
