Diesel prices are expected to decrease as Russia lifts its ban on seaborne exports, allowing for increased supply in the market. This move is likely to have a significant impact on the energy market.
Diesel prices have been rising in recent weeks due to fears of supply shortages, which could have a significant impact on inflation as diesel powers trucks, industrial machinery, and agricultural equipment. Higher fuel costs for businesses may lead to price increases on consumer goods, potentially forcing central banks to raise interest rates or keep them high for longer. Analysts and users of diesel are concerned that prices could spike this winter if refineries in Europe and North America shut down for repairs or maintenance. The geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, as well as production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia, could further contribute to higher diesel prices. A cold winter combined with a diesel shortage could particularly affect the Northeast, where heating oil is widely used.
Diesel prices in the US have reached their highest levels since March, posing a hidden tax on consumers and stoking inflation concerns. Recent refinery disruptions, including a fire at Marathon's Garyville refinery, have contributed to the upward pressure on diesel prices. Experts predict that diesel prices could continue to rise, potentially posing challenges for retailers stocking up for the holiday season. Gas prices have also hit a 2023 high, adding to inflation worries. Factors such as tighter output levels from OPEC+ and voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia have contributed to elevated crude prices. However, seasonality in gasoline demand and the potential impact of Hurricane Idalia on tanker movements could help keep a lid on prices in the near term.
Oil futures rose by about 1% to reach a one-week high due to soaring U.S. diesel prices, a decrease in the number of oil rigs, and a fire at a refinery in Louisiana. Brent crude futures settled at $84.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $79.83. Diesel futures also surged to a near seven-month high, leading to an increase in the diesel crack spread. Weak economic data and a stronger dollar limited the gains. Despite concerns about economic growth and inflation, analysts expect crude prices to remain supported around $80 per barrel.
The national average price of gasoline has risen to $3.57 per gallon, while the national average price of diesel has fallen to $3.87 per gallon. With the Federal Reserve meeting this week to potentially alter interest rates again, oil markets were trading lower, and gasoline prices could be impacted. Gasoline demand remains above the critical 9-million-barrel-per-day mark, putting upward pressure on average prices. Meanwhile, diesel prices have fallen to their lowest since early 2022, helping to relieve some pressure on hard-hit consumers of diesel.
Oil prices have been capped by fears of demand destruction due to economic woes despite OPEC+ announcing a production cut. Diesel prices have been shrinking for the past six months due to cyclical sensitivity. The Iraqi federal government and Kurdistan’s regional authorities have signed a temporary deal to resume oil exports through Turkey. The French court has ruled against TotalEnergies’ halted refinery. US oil major ExxonMobil will exit its self-operated license blocks in offshore Brazil after its exploration drilling program failed to yield any commercial discovery.