Private credit, once considered a 'golden' industry, faces scrutiny after Jamie Dimon’s comments comparing potential issues to cockroaches, leading to market concerns about credit risk and the stability of regional banks amid recent loan losses and warnings.
The start of earnings season has raised concerns about risky lending practices among regional banks, leading to a decline in their stocks and fears of a broader credit crisis, while large banks remain resilient and optimistic about the sector's outlook.
While concerns about an AI-driven bubble persist, the US economy continues to grow, with AI contributing about a quarter of recent GDP growth, but overall economic resilience and other factors also play significant roles. Corporate earnings, consumer resilience, and credit conditions suggest a complex picture, with some cracks appearing in credit markets despite strong overall growth.
Top US financiers have raised concerns about declining lending standards, warning that this could pose risks to financial stability and the broader economy.
Jamie Dimon warns that recent auto company bankruptcies indicate that lending standards may have become too lax over the past decade, signaling potential risks for the economy if a downturn occurs.
Affirm's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Linford, revealed that the fintech firm uses the time of day a consumer attempts a transaction as a key data point to determine loan approvals, with transactions between midnight and 4 a.m. signaling higher credit risk. The buy now, pay later industry, including companies like Affirm, Klarna, and Sezzle, offers real-time approvals for installment loans embedded in online checkout pages, but critics argue that they enable overspending. Affirm manages repayment risk by denying transactions or offering shorter-term loans with down payments, and reported steady delinquencies despite surging purchase volumes.
China's property market is in need of more government support to prevent further deterioration, as existing home prices fell in October by the most since 2014 and outstanding property loans fell for the first time in history. The government's focus on boosting demand has not addressed the credit risk related to developers, which could lead to a self-fulfilled confidence crisis. Real estate and related sectors currently account for about 22% of China's GDP. Recent data suggests that the property sector troubles are worsening, with larger cities experiencing declines in home prices. Policymakers have signaled more support, including allowing lending to real estate developers and emphasizing the development of affordable housing. However, more support is still needed to boost private sentiment.
Moody's Investors Service has issued a report stating that Creative Artists Agency (CAA) will face significant credit risk following the acquisition of a majority stake by French billionaire François-Henri Pinault's investment firm. The report highlights the potential financial challenges CAA may encounter due to ongoing strikes in Hollywood. However, Moody's maintains a stable outlook for the talent agency, noting that a significant portion of the revenue impact from the strikes is expected to be recovered once they are resolved. CAA's leverage is projected to increase in the near term, but Moody's anticipates a recovery in operating performance due to the continued demand for high-quality content.
Dalian Wanda Group, one of China's prominent property firms, has warned of a $200 million funding shortfall just days before a key dollar-bond payment, raising concerns about credit risk in the country's slowing economy. The unit, Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group, is still raising funds for a $400 million note that matures on July 23 and faces a funding gap for repayment. The news comes as China's economy shows signs of losing momentum, particularly in the property sector, which is experiencing a worsening downturn. Wanda's bond has plunged, and the firm's debt concerns have been circulating for months. Moody's and Fitch have downgraded Wanda Commercial's ratings, citing weakened funding access.
Junk-rated companies are accepting tougher terms to borrow as investors demand higher yields to compensate for the credit risk. These companies are facing higher interest rates and stricter covenants, which could lead to more defaults in the future.
UBS is offering to buy back $3 billion of bonds issued days before its acquisition of Credit Suisse Group AG, in an effort to calm concerns over the risks of the deal. While shareholders have cheered UBS picking up its rival at a very cheap price, its bond prices have dropped in recent days and credit ratings companies have lowered their outlook on the bank’s debt. UBS’s credit risk has been jolted since concern over Credit Suisse’s fate, and the role UBS would play in it, roiled global markets.