Global credit markets are showing resilience with a surge in bond issuance totaling $61 billion in one day, indicating investor confidence despite geopolitical tensions, driven by strong corporate fundamentals and economic optimism at the start of 2026.
The U.S. Treasury market experienced a selloff driven by increased bond issuance in September, rising yields nearing 5%, and global government bond declines, amid investor uncertainty and a competitive environment for yield across various fixed-income segments.
Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of super-long bonds in FY2025 to address rising yields and market concerns, with a decision expected in June. The total debt issuance will remain unchanged, and this move is seen as temporary relief amid market jitters and political pressures, while the Bank of Japan's taper plans for 2026 are also under consideration.
The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) has canceled Niger's planned $51 million bond issuance in the regional debt market due to sanctions imposed by the West African ECOWAS bloc following last week's coup. The ECOWAS regional bloc has demanded the reinstatement of Niger's ousted President within a week and imposed sanctions, including a halt on financial transactions and a freeze on national assets. Niger, heavily reliant on external aid and financing, was expected to issue two more bonds in the regional market. France, the EU, and the US have condemned the coup and suspended aid and cooperation with Niger.
The US national debt has surpassed $32 trillion, increasing by $572 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended two weeks ago. The Treasury Department is now selling a flood of Treasury securities to replenish its checking account that had been drawn down to near-nothing during the debt-ceiling standoff. The Treasury General Account at the New York Fed had fallen to a closing balance of $23 billion just before the debt ceiling was suspended. The TGA has jumped by $227 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended, including the June 15 tax receipts, to a balance of $250 billion. The Fed's QT is running for the first time simultaneously with the TGA being refilled, and both are draining liquidity from the markets simultaneously.
The US Treasury is expected to issue a wave of government bonds after the recent suspension of the debt limit, with estimates of $1.3tn in net bill issuance by the end of the year. This could potentially drain liquidity in financial markets, but the impact could be softened if money market funds move allocations away from the overnight reverse repo facility and into Treasury bills. However, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could dampen demand for T-bills.