The Winner's Curse occurs when the winners of auctions or bidding wars tend to overpay and end up paying more than the item's worth, a phenomenon observed across various markets and domains. Richard Thaler, a pioneer in behavioral economics, highlights how irrational bidding behavior leads to this curse and offers advice to avoid it, emphasizing cautious bidding especially in competitive environments with many bidders.
The Toronto International Film Festival showcases 15 highly anticipated films featuring stars like Chris Evans, Angelina Jolie, and Michaela Coel, which are expected to attract significant interest from buyers and spark intense bidding wars, including projects like 'Sacrifice' and 'Couture'.
Mortgage rates have fallen from 8%, prompting some buyers to reenter the market, but further declines could lead to bidding wars as pent-up demand is unleashed. The volume of mortgage applications for a purchase has increased, and the median monthly mortgage payment has decreased as rates have edged away from 8%. However, purchase activity remains lower than last year due to low supply of existing homes on the market. New listings have seen a year-over-year increase, offering hope for buyers, but limited inventory may create bidding wars and push up prices. The overall housing market is expected to remain slow due to the shortage of homes available compared to the number of buyers.
Surging mortgage rates have reshaped the housing market, with sales of existing homes declining while new homes are selling fast. The higher interest rates have priced out some buyers, leading to a decrease in sales of existing homes. Many sellers are also reluctant to move due to their lower interest rate mortgages, constraining the supply of homes. Despite fewer existing homes changing hands, bidding wars and high prices persist. With limited options, more buyers are turning to new construction, where sales have increased. Builders have been offering discounts and designing smaller houses to keep prices in check.
Home prices in the United States reached a new record high in May, rising 0.7% compared to April, according to the Black Knight Home Price Index. Despite high mortgage rates, home prices are accelerating each month, with a potential annual growth rate of 8.9%. The housing market, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels or set new highs. However, supply remains tight, with new listings down 25% from last year, leading to bidding wars and increased competition among buyers. Affordability is being impacted, as the median price of pre-owned homes in May was $396,100, and the monthly payment for a median-priced home is at a record high.
High-school sweethearts with good jobs, a baby on the way, and a $600,000 budget have been searching for a house for two years in south Jersey, but have been unsuccessful due to the tight supply and high demand in the state's housing market. Despite raising their budget and compromising on location, they have not been able to close on a home. The couple has put down countless offers and even wrote a letter to the owners of a house they bid on, but lost to a higher all-cash bid. The search has been demoralizing and defeating for the couple, who are expecting their baby girl next month.
Chicago's rental market is stabilizing after experiencing red-hot hikes in 2021 and 2022, but the market is still seeing some of the fastest price increases in the US. Rental listings are being snapped up within days, with many receiving multiple offers and going for hundreds of dollars more than originally listed. Demand is outpacing the supply of new units, leading to bidding wars and rent prices going up. While rents are stabilizing, the market is experiencing its usual spring and summer tailwinds, with more people moving during these seasons.
The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate hikes following a year of aggressive increases is unlikely to result in a significant drop in mortgage rates, but it does alleviate some uncertainty in the housing market. Elevated mortgage rates are prompting many homeowners to stay put, resulting in bidding wars as buyers compete for a small pool of homes. New listings in April were down 23% from a year earlier, the second biggest decline since the start of the pandemic, outpacing the 17% year-over-year decline in pending sales. Nearly half (48%) of homes that sold during the four weeks ending April 30 went under contract within two weeks, down from 51% a year earlier but up from 46% a month earlier.
